Super Bowl XLV Matchups
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After 17 grueling weeks of the NFL regular season and the ‘win or go home’ three rounds of the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers survived to come out of the NFC to face the survivor from the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.
This final showdown of the 2010 season will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. on Sunday, February 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
As in any football game, much of the analysis that goes in to trying to pick a winner is centered on a couple of key matchups between the two teams. Right now, most sportsbooks have opened Green Bay as a 2 ½-point favorite which is the closest spread in a Super Bowl since 1983. The trick now is to decide which team has enough of an edge to come out on top in what should be a hard-fought battle to the end.
The following is a breakdown of this matchup based on offense, defense, special teams, and intangibles.
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OFFENSE
The slight edge here goes to Green Bay based on two things; its overall production and its quarterback. The Packers finished the regular season with the ninth-ranked offense in the league while the Steelers finished ranked 14th. Green Bay’s passing game averaged 258 passing yards a game verse Pittsburgh’s 225 yards. In the postseason these numbers came in at 251 for the Packers and 156 for the Steelers.
Green Bay’s rushing game only averaged 100 yards a game in the regular season, but ballooned to 118 yards a game with the emergence of rookie RB James Starks as a legitimate weapon. Pittsburgh has remained consistent throughout, averaging close to 120 yards in both the regular season and the playoffs.
DEFENSE
The slight edge here goes to Pittsburgh based on total yards allowed and its secondary. The Steelers finished the regular season giving up an average of 277 total yards per game. This number was reduced to an average of 208 in their two playoff games. The Packers gave up an average of 309 total yards per game in the regular season and cut it back to 282 yards in their three playoff games.
Both defenses have been rock-solid against the run in the postseason, but Pittsburgh held its opponents to an average of 155 passing yards per game, while Green Bay came in at 213.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both these teams have decent special teams, but in a close game like this you have to look at each team’s placekicker to find an edge. Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham was not a huge part of the offense this season, but he did convert on 14-of-15 attempts including going 8-for-9 from 40 or more yards out. The Packers’ Mason Crosby was called on 28 times in the regular season, converting on 22 of his kicks. Four of his misses were from 40 yards or longer, but he did miss twice from 39 yards in, giving Pittsburgh a moderate advantage in this category.
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INTANGIBLES
Since most big games are won or lost on which team wins the battle of turnovers, this category is probably the biggest intangible there is. Green Bay finished the regular season with a turnover ratio of +10 and was +3 in the playoffs. Pittsburgh finished the regular season ranked second to only New England at +17, but was even in its two playoff games. The slight advantage here goes to the Steelers for their overall body of work.
Another important intangible in big games is experience. Green Bay is returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998, while Pittsburgh’s roster is littered with players from their 2008 Super Bowl run and has a quarterback named Ben Roethlisberger who is going for his third ring in seven seasons in the NFL. A big advantage here goes to Pittsburgh.
THE FINAL ANALYSIS
When you add it all up the scales tip towards Pittsburgh in this game especially given the fact it is getting 2 ½-points. The 2010 Steelers will never go down as one of the prettiest teams in the NFL, but they have a knack for making plays at the right time and have also been able to “snatch victory from the jaws of defeat” on more than one occasion in the past. Stick with Pittsburgh to add to its franchise glory with yet another Lombardi Trophy.
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I see the Super Bowl XLV match up going to the Green Bay Packers 24-21. It goes down to who has the better QB at the time; and Aaron Rodgers has been much playing much better than Ben Roethlisberger (Ben threw 2 INTs vs the Jets in the AFC Championship – it would have been 4 INTs if the Jets defense didn’t have butter on their hands). Rodgers can sramble, and it seems the best QBs this year can scramble (e.g. Michael Vick)