Super Bowl XLV Handicapping Guide
Everything is finally in place for Super Bowl XLV. The AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to face the NFC Champion Green Bay Packers on Sunday, February 6. The game will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. TX at 6:30 p.m. (ET) and will be broadcast nationally on FOX. The only thing left to do is to figure out which team will win.
Most of the major sportsbooks have opened the Packers as a 2 ½-point favorite and the ‘over/under’ line has settled in at 44 ½ points. The lines may change a bit over the next 10 days as money starts to come in on either side, but for the most part it looks like Green Bay will be slightly favored in a fairly high-scoring game.
The following is look at the pertinent statistics and betting trends that should help you decide which side of the fence to land on.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have gone with a very consistent approach all season long; run the ball on offense and keep teams out of the end zone on defense. This formula has served them well on their run to an eighth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.
They finished the regular season with the 14th-ranked offense in the league; averaging 345.3 total yards per game. Pittsburgh’s rushing offense averaged 120.2 yards per game in the regular season and 118.5 yards in its two playoff games.
The defense was ranked second in the league overall and first in points allowed; giving up an average of just 14.5 points a game. It gave up an average of just 207.5 yards of total offense but did yield a total of 43 points in two playoff games.
Check out the latest Super Bowl XLV Odds here.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers had several peaks and valleys through the regular season due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball. They have remained fairly healthy through their three-game run in the postseason and have proven they are as good a team with the players they have on the field right now as they were on opening day.
Green Bay’s offense still revolves around QB Aaron Rodgers and the pass, but it has done a great job running the ball in the playoffs with the emergence of RB James Starks as a legitimate threat. The Packers finished the regular season ranked 24th in the league in rushing; averaging 100.4 yards per game, but have boosted that number to 118 yards in the playoffs.
Defensively, Green Bay could be considered just as good as Pittsburgh. It ended the regular season giving up an average of 309.1 yards and 15 points a game. It has given up an average of 282.3 total yards and 17 points in three postseason games.
Super Bowl XLV Betting Trends
Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the spread in its last five playoff games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 playoff games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last six playoff games as an underdog and in 16 of its last 21 playoff games overall.
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite, but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven games following a straight-up win.
The key to any close matchup such as this is turnovers. The Steelers were +17 in the regular season, but even in their two postseason games, while the Packers were +10 in the regular season and +3 in their three postseason games.
The Pick: Green Bay -2 ½ and OVER
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