In the last week of the regular season the totals bet was split right down the middle with eight games staying under the total line and eight games going over. This was the third week in a row that this play was evenly split which goes to show just how good the odds makers really are. As we turn our attention to the postseason there are four games on tap for this weekend. In this wildcard round we have three games that are rematches from just a week ago and one game that is a rematch from week four. Just how much you can pull from those games to make your picks this week remains to be seen as the playoffs are a whole new season. Here is a brief preview of each game and my over/under pick for each.
Saturday January 9th
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals Current Over/Under 34
The current line has dropped a bit which tells me that everyone is counting on a low scoring, hard fought battle between these two defensive minded teams. Given the statistics for each, it is hard to argue they are wrong. New York comes into this game with the #1 ranked defense in points allowed with 14.8, total yards allowed with 252.3, and passing yards allowed with 153.7. Compound this with the fact that Cincinnati’s offense has struggled to move the ball down the field and put points on the board the entire second half of the season, the prospect for them putting up more than a touchdown or two in this game seems slim at best. The Jets offense is certainly no juggernaut in its own right. They are ranked first in rushing yards per game but are 17th in points per game. They will also face a stiff test as the Bengals’ defense is ranked 4th overall. Another factor in Saturday’s game will be the weather as the forecast is for bitter cold and wind which will also work to keep the scoring down. Even though the total is fairly low, I would stick with the UNDER.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Current Over/Under 45
Dallas comes into this game with their defense playing at a very high level. They have pitched a shutout in their last two games including a 24-0 blanking of Philadelphia just last week. In the first meeting between these two teams back in week nine they held the Eagles to just 16 points. Offensively the Cowboys have been very workman like but not spectacular. They are currently averaging 22.6 points per game but more importantly they are winning the time of possession battle grinding out yards of the ground. The Eagles have relied on the big play all season long to break games wide open. WR DeSean Jackson leads the league in TD’s over 50 yards and he is one of the main reasons they average almost 27 points per game. Last week Dallas frustrated Donovan McNabb all day long and took away his deep threats. From past experience, that rarely happens two weeks in a row especially given the fact they are playing the same team. The Cowboys are going to have to work much harder for this win as Philly will find a way to put points on the board. I’m going with the OVER.
Sunday January 10th
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Current Over/Under 43
Baltimore started the season by scoring 30 or more points five times in their first seven games. Since then they have only been able to do that twice. Because of the inconsistency at times of QB Joe Flacco’s arm, they have turned to RB Ray Rice running the ball and away from Flacco throwing it. Over their past five games only once has he thrown the ball more than 30 times. In that one game, a 27-14 loss to Green Bay he completed only 42% of his passes and was picked off three times. New England has been rather conservative themselves down the stretch as QB Tom Brady has only averaged 28 attempts a game over the past six weeks. With his favorite receiver, Wes Welker out of the lineup they may have to rely more on their running game in this one. This contest will come down to ball control and a battle of field position as neither offense is in a position to try and light it up. I’m staying with the UNDER.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Current Over/Under 47
This game features two of the most prolific quarterbacks in the game. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has passed for 4,434 yards and 30 TD’s this season, while Arizona QB Kurt Warner has thrown for 3,753 yards and 26 TD’s. The Packers are led by two 1000 yard WR’s; Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, while the Cardinals have two of their own; Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The Packers are ranked 3rd in the league in points per game with 28.8 and the Cardinals are ranked 11th with 23.4. Both teams will benefit from perfect weather conditions as the game will be played in the University of Phoenix Stadium. All of this adds up to a fast track that is very conducive to scoring. I expect the both these quarterbacks to come out throwing the ball in an effort to test each other’s secondary right from the start. There is too much star power in this one to keep this a low scoring affair. I’m going with the OVER.
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