NFL Wildcard Weekend-Top ‘Over/Under’ Plays
There are only four games on the schedule for this weekend’s NFL Wildcard Round of the playoffs, so uncovering a couple of locks against the total line becomes quite the challenge. The odds makers have sharpened their pencils so it is time to sharpen ours.
Here is a look at my top two plays against the total line for this weekend’s games. All lines quoted are courtesy of BetUs.com.
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New York (Jets) @ Indianapolis Over/Under: 44 ½
Rex Ryan’s Jets have built a reputation on playing solid defense and running the ball. They won both of their playoff games last year by keeping the opposing team out of the end zone and grinding out a low-scoring win.
This season things have changed a bit. While New York is still ranked sixth in points allowed and 13th in scoring, it gave up 20 or more points in half its games this year and scored 20 or more points in 11 of them.
Everyone knows about the Colts injury woes this season, but even without players like Dallas Clark or Austin Collie, the offense still managed to average 27.2 points per game, which was fourth-best in the NFL. As long as Peyton Manning is behind center, this team remains a threat to score every time it has the ball.
The injury situation did take its toll on Indianapolis’s defense, as it is ranked 23rd in the league in points allowed; giving up an average 24.2 per game. They held opponents to under 20 points just five times this season.
The total has gone ‘over’ in New York’s last six games as an underdog and in four of its last five playoff games. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of Indianapolis’s last six games as a favorite and in five of its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last four meetings. The Pick: OVER
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Green Bay @ Philadelphia Over/Under: 46
The Packers’ offense is ranked 10th in the league in scoring; averaging 24.2 points per game. They ranked-up 27 points against Philadelphia on the road in Week 1 and scored 20 points or more in 10 games this season.
Their defense is ranked second in the league in points allowed, but gave up 20 points to Philly in Week 1 and gave up 20 or more points in seven games this season. Last season, Green Bay went into the playoffs with the second-ranked defense overall and gave up 51 points in a loss to Arizona.
QB Michael Vick leads an Eagles’ offense that is averaging 27.4 points per game (3rd best in the NFL) and scored 30 or more points six times this season.
Philadelphia’s defense remains a huge cause for concern heading into the playoffs after giving up an average of 23.6 points per game. They gave up 20 or more points 11 times this season.
The total has gone ‘over’ in four of Green Bay’s last five playoff games on the road . The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of Philadelphia’s last 12 games overall. The Pick: OVER
Year to Date ‘Best Bets’ Record: 29-22
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