NFL Week Four- Top 3 Over/Under Plays of the Week

After three weeks teams’ offenses and defenses are starting to finally take shape. From an offensive standpoint the top three scoring teams are New Orleans, Baltimore, and Philadelphia each averaging over 30 points per game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the last three teams in terms of points per game are Oakland, Cleveland, and St. Louis. These three teams have combined for only eight offense touchdowns so far. On the defensive side of the ball, the surprising 3-0 Broncos lead the way only giving up an average of 5.3 points per game. It has helped that two of their games were against the Raiders and the Browns. The next best are both New York teams, the Jets and Giants along with Indianapolis. The teams giving up the most points per game are Carolina, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The Browns have officially been designated the worst team in the league ranking last in both categories. When looking for a betting edge, seek out match-ups with teams that are out of balance between their offense and defense. Do not be afraid of a taking a low under or high over line as this may signal a good opportunity. The following are my top 3 Over/Under picks for week three.

Tampa Bay  Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins Current Over/Under 37

The Redskins are ranked 13^th in yards per game, but 28^th in points per game. They can move the ball between the twenties, but completely stall out in the red zone. Defensively they have played well, ranking 15^th in yards allowed per game and 6^th in points allowed. This sets them up as the ultimate “under team”, a bad offense with a good defense. To make things even better, Tampa Bay is ranked 27^th in points scored and 25^th in total yards. These numbers should only get worse since they named Josh Johnson their starting QB for this game. The second year player who started the preseason 4^th on the depth chart will be making his first NFL start. While Tampa’s defense is equally as bad, ranked 31^st in yards and points allowed, I still do not think Washington will be able to score enough to take this game over 37. This is my top UNDER bet of the week.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Current Over/Under 37

The Rams actually scored 17 points last week against Green Bay which more than doubled their point total from their first two games. They rank 28^th in total offense, but have been able to move the ball somewhat on the ground ranking 13th. Their main problem is their passing game, which is ranked 29^th. This does not help when you are constantly playing from behind. San Francisco’s offense is rather similar, ranking 16^th in rushing yards per game and 27^th in passing. Their strength lies in their defense where they are ranked 13^th overall and 4^th against the run. Their ability to stop the run will help negate the Ram’s only strength. All this adds up to a low scoring game. I do not think the Rams can score more than 10 points, so even if the 49ers score a few touchdowns this one still stays UNDER.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Current Over/Under 46

The Packers or the Vikings have not been overly impressive from a statistical standpoint as they are both ranked in the bottom half of the league offensively in yards per game. Minnesota is 18^th and Green Bay is 22^nd. Where they are both ranked in the top ten are points per game. The Packers are 6^th averaging 27 Pts/G and the Vikings are 4^th averaging 29.3 Pts/G. That is what the over is all about, scoring points. Add in the extra drama of Brett Favre playing against his old team along with Aaron Rodger’s ability to put up some big numbers and you are looking a high scoring shootout. Take the over as each quarterback will look to out shine the other.