The under bet was a slightly better play than the over bet last week as seven games stayed under the total while six games went over. There were three games that barely stayed under and are the kind of games that give bettors the fits. Houston at Buffalo had a total of 41 points and the total line was 41.5, Oakland at San Diego combined for 40 points and the total line was 41.5, and Jacksonville at Tennessee’s total was 43 and the total line was 45. In a very predictable under pick, the Rams got their first win of the year by beating the Lions 17-10. Equally predictable was the Falcons at Saints game going over, even though the total was set at 54.5. Give credit to San Francisco for holding Peyton Manning and the Colts to only 18 points in a game that stayed way under the total. Minnesota and Green Bay put on a show combining for 64 total points, going way over the total. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week nine.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Current Over/Under 42
Jacksonville is coming off another disappointing loss as this time they were beaten 30- 13 by Tennessee who hadn’t won a game all year. Despite their total lack of consistency from one week to the next, at 3-4, if they can string together some victories they still have a shot at making the playoffs. Offensively their biggest problem is scoring. While they rank 11th in the league in total yards per game and 8th in rushing yards this has not resulted in points on the board as the rank 22nd in scoring. Kansas City is coming off their bye week and will look to this week as a chance to turn their season around after a 1-6 start. There is room for improvement in every phase of their game as their offense and defense are both ranked 30th overall. They also have had trouble finding the end zone, averaging only 15 points per game. Both teams will try to grind it out on the ground taking the pressure of their very suspect passing game. This adds up to a fast paced game with little scoring. My play would be to stay with the UNDER.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Current Over/Under 48
While everyone knows how good the Colts are this year, the Texans are quietly becoming a playoff contender in the AFC. Their 5-3 record is the best in franchise history and if they can find a way to win this game they would only be two back in the division. While their running game is nothing to write home about, QB Matt Schaub is putting up some Pro Bowl like numbers with his arm. Houston is averaging 281.5 passing yards per game, good for 3rd in the league, as well as averaging close to 25 points a game. Given the fact that Indianapolis is averaging 28 points a game and has the number one passing offense in the league, this game is set up for the points to fly. I’m going with the OVER in this one.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers Current Over/Under 41
Tennessee finally got off the schneid last week with a win over Jacksonville. Vince Young got the start in favor of Kerry Collins and managed the game well. Although he did throw a touchdown, RB Chris Johnson led the way with 228 yards on the ground. Look for the Titans to employ this same strategy against the 49ers as their running game is now ranked 2nd in the league while their passing offense is ranked 26th. Despite the fact they have lost their last three games, the 49ers are still only one game out of first in the NFC West. Last week against the Colts, they went with Alex Smith at quarterback with mixed results. While he didn’t make any crucial mistakes, the offense had trouble converting on third down which kept them out of the end zone. Neither one of these teams is a real threat to score a lot of points as they both like to keep the ball on the ground and chew up the clock. This game sets up as a perfect UNDER bet in my opinion.
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