Top 3 NFL Pointspread Plays – Week 6
Week 5 in the NFL should be referred to as ‘even-steven’ as all the results both straight-up and against the spread were split right down the middle. Seven home teams won both SU and ATS and seven road teams did the same.
The split between the underdogs and the favorites followed suit with seven dogs covering ATS by winning their game outright. Four road dogs came away with a win SU and ATS, while three home dogs won SU and ATS.
Turning to Week 6, right now there are five home teams getting points with largest spread being St. Louis getting eight against San Diego. Of the road teams getting points, the largest spread has Pittsburgh (with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger) giving Cleveland (who may have to go with rookie Colt McCoy as their starting QB) 13 ½ points.
Here is a look at my top three ‘pointspread’ plays for the NFL’s Week 6. All lines are courtesy of BetUs.com.
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New York Jets (-3) @ Denver
Everyone knows how good New York’s defense is but the Jets offense has really turned things around the past few games after an extremely poor showing to start the season. They are currently ranked 15th overall and fourth in scoring.
Denver’s passing offense behind a resurgent Kyle Orton is currently ranked second in the league, but other than being able to move the ball through the air, the Broncos are struggling in a number of other key areas. They are ranked dead last in rushing offense, 15th in scoring and their defense is ranked 25th in both rushing yard and points allowed.
The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The Pick: New York -3
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Dallas @ Minnesota (-1 ½)
Dallas was a number of people’s pick to go the Super Bowl this year because of the wealth of talent on this team. The problem this season has been getting all this talent to play as a team. So far mental mistakes, bad penalties, and a high number of turnovers have directly led to their 1-3 start.
Minnesota is in the same boat as Dallas at 1-3, but its problems are a bit more isolated. Most of the issues revolve around the erratic play of QB Brett Favre, who is off to probably the worst start of his long, tenured career. Once he turns his game around the Vikings fortunes should follow suit.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Vikings are 6-1-1 in their last eight games at home as a favorite. Head-to-head, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games played and the favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last eight games played. The Pick: Minnesota -1 ½
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Indianapolis (-3) @ Washington
Indianapolis is not off to the best start in the world primarily because of problems on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts are ranked 23rd in total average yards allowed and 29th in average rushing yards allowed, but are 13th against the pass.
Washington’s offense, behind its new QB Donovan McNabb is ranked 16th in average yards per game and seventh in average passing yards per game, but 24th in average points per game. The Redskins defense, much like the Colts, has struggled so far. They are ranked 30th in average passing yards allowed and dead last in total average yards allowed.
The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record. The Redskins are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games against a road team with a winning record. The Pick: Indianapolis -3
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