Top 3 NFL Over/Under Plays of the Week
For the second week in a row the ‘over’ bet had the advantage with nine games scoring more points than the total line and seven scoring less. The total average number of points scored in each game continues to climb. Week 1 had an average of just 36.6 points per game, Week 2 jumped to 41.4, and last week the average came in at 43.4. Buffalo and New England combined for the most points in the Patriots 38-30 victory over the Bills. The total line was 42 ½. The least amount of points scored was 27, in Cincinnati’s 20-7 win over Carolina. The total line in that game was 38.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 4 in the NFL. All total lines are provided by Sportsbook.com.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Over/Under: 42
Picked by many to win the NFC West, San Francisco’s 0-3 start is one of the biggest early season surprises this year. The 49ers’ offense is not only struggling to put points on the board behind QB Alex Smith, but their defense is having major troubles keeping opposing teams out of the end zone as well. They are ranked 31st in points per game and dead last in points allowed.
Atlanta has found some offense in its last two games but is still having problems moving the ball through the air. The Falcons are ranked second in rushing offense but just 16th in passing. Their defense has been stingy, giving up an average of just 15.3 points per game which is sixth best in the league.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the 49ers last seven games against the NFC. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the Falcons last nine games overall. The Pick: UNDER.
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Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans Over/Under: 41 ½
The most surprising thing about Denver so far is the offensive numbers that QB Kyle Orton has put up in his first three games. He has completed 83-of-125 attempts for 1,078 yards and four TD’s. The Broncos’ offense is ranked second in total yards per game and is averaging 20.3 points per game.
Tennessee QB Vince Young bounced back from a poor performance in a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh with a solid outing in the Titans 29-10 win over the N.Y. Giants. Tennessee is actually ranked fifth in scoring; averaging 26 points per game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Broncos last eight games. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Titans last five games they were a home favorite. The Pick: OVER
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Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under: 46 ½
Indianapolis looked horrible in its opening day loss to Houston but still managed to score 24 points. The Colts have gone on to score a total of 65 points in their last two games and are ranked second in the league in points per game.
Jacksonville only managed three points at home last week against Philadelphia, but has averaged almost 24 points a game in its last nine games at home. The Jaguars defense is giving up an average of 27.7 points per game; ranking them 29th in the league.
The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Colts last 10 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Jaguars last five games against the AFC. The Pick: OVER
Last week’s record: 0-3 YTD: 5-4
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