Last week the odds makers drew it up just like they are supposed to as eight games stayed under the total line, and eight games went over. This ends a four week tear where we saw the under bet pay off 67% of the time. One of the most shocking results of the week was the Cleveland@ Kansas City game. Two teams that had been averaging less than 16 points a game combined for a total of 75 points as the Browns won a thriller 41-34. In that game, Cleveland RB Jerome Harrison ran for a team record 286 yards and Josh Cribbs returned two kickoffs for TD’s. The New York Giants showed the world they are still alive and kicking by pasting the Redskins 45-12, taking the game over the total line of 43 on their own. Another game that easily went over the total was Indianapolis holding off Jacksonville’s upset bid and pulling out a 35-31 win to keep their 23 game unbeaten streak alive. In another high scoring game, Pittsburgh needed a 19 yard scoring strike from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace as time expired to beat Green Bay 37-36 and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. On the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta and the New York Jets could only manage a combined 17 points against a total line of 40. Dallas was able to hold new Orleans to a season low 17 points, ending the Saint’s 13 game winning streak in a game that stayed way under the total line of 53.5. Carolina completely shutdown Minnesota, holding them to just one touchdown in an impressive 26-7 victory. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week 16.
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons Current Over/Under 42
The Bills are down to their third string QB as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards are both out for this game. In their place, second year man Brian Brohm will most likely get the start. Not only has he never started a game in the NFL, he has never even thrown a single pass in the regular season. For an offense that is only averaging 16.1 points per game, this will only make matters worse. Atlanta’s offense has all but shut down since RB Michael Turner reinjured his ankle back in week 12. In their last three games with Turner out of the lineup, they have only averaged 12.3 points per game. With injuries taking their toll on a couple of teams that were already struggling on offense to begin with, this game is primed to stay UNDER.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Current Over/Under 41
It is hard to pinpoint what has suddenly gone wrong with Minnesota’s offense, but in their last two road games against Arizona and Carolina they have only managed to score 24 total points which is well below their 28.2 points per game average. In those two losses, Adrian Peterson only rushed for 54 yards on 25 carries and Brett Favre threw more interceptions then he did all year long. There are just too many weapons on this Viking team for these kinds of performances to continue. Fortunately they are playing a Chicago team that is giving up an average of 23 points a game and is ranked 25th against the run. In their last game against the Bears they put up 30 points and I would expect the same result this week as well. Chicago is a much better home team than on the road, so they should be able to add a couple of touchdowns to help the cause. I like this game to go OVER the total.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Current Over/Under 41
Whenever these two teams get together you know it will be a war. Not only is there a genuine dislike amongst the players, there are major playoff implications for both these teams as each is desperate for a win to keep their postseason hopes alive. In their first meeting this season back in week 12, Baltimore pounded out a 20-17 win. In three games between them last year, including the playoffs the average total points scored was 34. These games tend to be close as neither team has won by more than eight points the last two years and they tend to be physical as they just love to hit one another. Both their defenses have been stingy with giving up points as the Steelers are allowing just 20 points per game and the Ravens are averaging even less, giving up only 16.1 per game. This time of year you can almost guarantee it will be cold and windy in Pittsburgh which should only help to keep the score down. I’m staying with the UNDER in this battle.
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