Top 3 NFL ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 16
Last week, for the 11th time this season, the ‘over’ bet had the advantage with 10 games scoring more points than the total line, five games scoring less, and there was one ‘push’.
The total average number of points scored in each game came in at 48.7 which was eight points more than the week before. The highest average total was in Week 8 at 56.5 points and the lowest was in Week 1 at 36.6. The most combined points scored last week was 69 in Philadelphia’s dramatic come-from-behind 38-31 victory over the Giants. The least amount of points scored was 31 in Buffalo’s 17-14 win over Miami and Carolina’s 19-12 win over Arizona.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 16 in the NFL. All total lines quoted are courtesy of BetUs.com.
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Seattle @ Tampa Bay Over/Under: 43 ½
The Seahawks are averaging 19.9 points a game, but have only averaged 17 point a game on the road this season. Things have gotten so bad that head coach Pete Carroll considered replacing long-time starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for this must-win game in an effort to jump-start the offense.
The Buccaneers are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs so this game still carries some meaning, however their offense has not been that much better; averaging just 20 points a game, including a 17.8 average in their last four.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last four meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay and in the last seven meetings overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the Buccaneers last seven games in December. The Pick: UNDER
Houston @ Denver Over/Under: 48
The Texans have no clue how to stop anyone on defense, but they can still put points of the board which is the perfect combination for high scoring games. They average 23.8 points per game and give up an average of 27.6.
The Broncos have only won three games this season mainly because they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are ranked in the bottom third in every major category and dead last in points allowed; giving up an average of 29.6 points per game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Texans last six games against the AFC and in six of their last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of the Broncos last 14 games against the AFC and in 15 of their last 19 games overall. The Pick: OVER
Indianapolis @ Oakland Over/Under: 47
The Colts have suffered numerous injuries on offense this season but with Peyton Manning at the helm they are still ranked fourth in the league in scoring; averaging 27.2 points per game. Injuries to the defense leave them ranked 22nd in points allowed; giving up an average of 24.4 per game.
The Raiders’ turnaround this season has been mainly due to an offense that has finally found ways to put points on the board. They are averaging 25.2 points per game which is ninth best in the league. Defensively, they have not been as good; giving up an average of 23.6 points per game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Colts last five games on the road and in four of their last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Raiders last six home games and in eight of their last 10 games against the AFC. The Pick: OVER
Last week’s record: 3-0 YTD: 25-20
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