The under bet continued its hot streak as 11 of the games last week stayed under the total line, four games went over, and there was one push; Denver @ Indianapolis with a total line of 44. Over the past four weeks 43 out of 64 games in the NFL have stayed under the total line which equates to a 67% winning percentage on that play. Last week overall scoring in the games continued to drop as five games combined score was 30 points or less and there were only three games that combined for over 50 points. The lowest total was 19 with Cleveland beating Pittsburgh 13-6, pretty much ending the Steelers chance to make the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl just a year ago. The highest total was 83 in the Philadelphia@ N.Y. Giants game. This was the highest combined total ever for these two teams in all the years they have played each other. Another amazing stat from this game is there were five touchdowns scored on plays 60 yards or longer. Baltimore and Tennessee found their offense taking their games over on their own. The Ravens demolished Detroit 48-3 with a total line of 39.5 and the Titans crushed St. Louis 47-7 with a total line of 41.5. The only other game to go over was Washington beating Oakland 31-13 with a total line of 37.5. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week 15.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Current Over/Under 36.5
In the battle to stay out of last place in the AFC, Cleveland will take their 32nd ranked offense on the road to face a Kansas City team that currently has the 30th ranked offense. The Browns are averaging just 12.2 points per game while the Chiefs are putting up 15.8 per game. Given the fact that the best part of their attack is running the ball (Cleveland ranks 20th, while Kansas City ranks 21st) this game looks like it will turn into three yards and cloud of dust where the clock keeps ticking and the scoreboard remains quiet. Defensively they are equally as bad with the Browns coming in ranked 31st overall and the Chiefs being ranked 30th. When you look for bright spots on these teams there really aren’t any that come to mind, other than the fact that their season is almost over. They leave me no other choice but to recommend you stay UNDER in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks Current Over/Under 39.5
Tampa rookie QB Josh Freeman was given the starting job back in week 9 and immediately made an impact throwing for 3TD’s in a 38-28 win over Green Bay. That game will have to be used to put together his highlight reel as it has been all downhill ever since. In his last two games he has thrown eight interceptions and zero TD’s. As a team, their offense is ranked 28th overall and are averaging less than 15 points a game. Seattle is not nearly as bad but they too have had trouble scoring points this season averaging only 19.2 which ranks them 21st. Unhappy with his offensive line, Seahawk head coach Jim Mora is talking about benching some players this week which is never good news for quarterback like Matt Hasselbeck who has been struggling with injuries all season long. Neither team has shown the ability to put more than 20 points on the board in their last few games so I cannot see this total going over 40. Stay with the UNDER in this one.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions Current Over/Under 46
Arizona had a chance to clinch the NFC West with a win over San Francisco last Monday night, but couldn’t get it done losing 24-9. In that game they turned the ball over seven times basically handing the 49ers the easy victory. The good news is that Cardinal QB Kurt Warner rarely has two bad games in a row and has been known to bounce back from ugly losses with some of the best performances in his long and storied career. Couple this with the fact that this year they are a much better road team than at home with a 5-2 record in games not played in Arizona. The final bonus for the Cardinals this week is they are playing Detroit. The Lions are ranked dead last in points allowed, giving up an average of 31.2 points per game and give up on an average 272 passing yards per game also good for last in the league. Warner and company should have a field day in this one so take the OVER.
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