The under bet was the best play for the third week in a row. 11 games stayed under the total line while only five games went over. In the last three weeks, 32 out of 48 games stayed under the total which equates to 67%. The amazing fact about week 13 is that ten games’ totals were only six points either way from their total line. Five games stayed under their total by three points or less making for a very frustrating day for anyone on the wrong side of the line. The lowest total of the week was 22 with Carolina grinding out a 16-6 win over Tampa Bay in a game that had a line of 40. The next lowest was 26 with Chicago beating St. Louis 17-9 against a total line of 41. Two of the games that did go over, easily eclipsed their total. Denver sent a message to the rest of the AFC that they are still a factor in the chase for the championship by scoring 44 points in a rout over Kansas City. You didn’t even need the Chiefs 13 points for this game to go over the 39 point total line. In another high scoring game, the Saints survived a major scare as they had to come from behind to beat the Redskins 33-30 in overtime. The total line for this game was 47. Washington had control of this game late in the 4th but let it all slip away on a missed field goal to ice the win and a costly fumble in overtime that set up the game winning field goal for New Orleans. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week 14.
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions Current Over/Under 39.5
It is hard to say what happened to the Ravens, but ever since their 30-7 win over Denver in week eight their offense has been anemic. In their last five games they are just 2-3 and have averaged only 14.4 points per game. QB Joe Flacco seems to be suffering from a sophomore slump as he has thrown just two TD’s against six interceptions in the five game span. If you think Baltimore’s offense is bad. Equally as bad has been Detroit’s offense. Except for the 38 points they scored against Cleveland, in their last seven games they have averaged a paltry 10.8 points per game. In his last six games, rookie QB Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 TD’s and 14 interceptions. To make matters worse for the Lions, the Ravens defense is still ranked 6th overall in points allowed. Given these numbers and these team’s trends over the past few weeks, this game adds up to a low scoring battle that will most likely not be featured on any highlight shows. Go big with the UNDER in this one.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Current Over/Under 41
Green Bay appears to be hitting their stride especially on offense in their four game winning streak. They are currently ranked 7th in points per game with 26.9, 6th in total yards per game with 379.3, 8th in passing yards per game with 262.2, and 13th is rushing yards per game with 117.1. With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball extremely well along with RB Ryan Grant effectively running the ball, the Packer’s balanced attack will be hard for Chicago to stop. The Bear’s defense, usually the strength of the team has not been the same since losing All Pro LB Brain Urlacher early in the season with a dislocated wrist and has struggled against teams with a high powered offense. The good news for the Bears is that they are a much better team at home than on the road, especially their QB Jay Cutler. In six home games this season he has thrown nine TD’s and only three interceptions helping his team win four of them. In this match-up, I like the OVER.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Current Over/Under 37
Once again after looking at the tale of the tape, this game does not favor a high scoring affair. Buffalo’s offense is only averaging 16.6 points per game and their defense is giving up an average of 21.8 points per game. Kansas City’s offense is averaging 16.3 points a game which ranks them 28th in the league. Things got so bad last week against the Broncos that QB Matt Cassel was benched in favor of Brodie Croyle. He will most likely be back as the starter this week, but his confidence will surely be shaken. To make matters worse for Cassel, he will face a Bill’s secondary that is ranked 4th in the league against the pass. Neither one of these teams is going anywhere and playing for pride rarely creates a sense of urgency that often leads to a high scoring game. I’m staying with the UNDER in this game.
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