Top 3 NFL ‘Over/Under’ Plays – Week 13
Last week, for the just the third time this season, the ‘under’ bet had the advantage with nine games scoring less points than the total line and seven games scoring more.
The total average number of points scored in each game came in at 45.4 points, which was exactly the same as the week before. The highest average total was in Week 8 at 56.5 points and the lowest was in Week 1 at 36.6. The most combined points scored last week was 69 in New England’s 45-24 victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving and in St. Louis’s 36-33 win over Oakland. The least amount of points scored was 20 in Houston’s 20-0 shutout of Tennessee.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 13 in the NFL. All total lines quoted are courtesy of BetUs.com.
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Cleveland @ Miami Over/Under 42 ½
The Browns offense could hardly be considered a juggernaut and even the return of Jake Delhomme would hardly strike any fear in opposing defenses. They are ranked 27th overall and 24th in scoring; averaging just 19.6 points per game.
The Dolphins offense is really not that much better and is actually averaging even less points per game at 18.6. Miami does have a pretty stingy defense as it is only giving up an average of 20.5 points per game which is 10th best in the league.
The total has stayed under in 11 of Cleveland’s last 15 games in December. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 20 of Miami’s last 29 games following a SU win and in three of its last five games in December. The Pick: UNDER
Denver @ Kansas City Over/Under 48 ½
The Broncos passing game has been one of the best in the league this season, while its running game is basically non-existent. Denver’s defense has been a source of problems all season long and is currently ranked last in the league in points allowed; giving up an average of 29.4 per game.
The revitalized Chiefs are 7-4 primarily because its fourth ranked scoring offense is putting up an average of 25.9 points per game. Kansas City’s defense has been fairly solid all season long but is ranked 24th against the pass which plays right into Denver’s strength.
The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last nine meetings in Kansas City and in six of the last seven meetings overall. The Pick: OVER
Buffalo @ Minnesota Over/Under 45
The 2-9 Bills are easily one of the most snake-bit teams in the league, losing its last four games to teams with winning records by a total of 12 points. Buffalo’s defense has given up an average of just 19.4 points in its last five games.
The Vikings once-vaunted offense is currently ranked 30th in the league in scoring; averaging just 17.2 points per game. They have scored a total of 33 points in their last three games and have scored more than 20 points only five times all season.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of Buffalo’s last seven games against a team with a losing record and in four of its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of Minnesota’s last 11 home games. The Pick: UNDER
Last week’s record: 1-2 YTD: 20-16
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