Top 3 NFL ‘Over/Under’ Plays – Week 12
For the ninth time is 11 weeks the ‘over’ bet had the advantage with seven games scoring more points than the total line, six scoring less, and two games ending in a ‘push’.
The total average number of points scored in each game came in at 45.6 points, which was a six points lower than last week’s 51.9. The highest average total was in Week 8 at 56.5 points and the lowest was in Week 1 at 36.6. The most combined points scored last week was 80 in Buffalo’s 49-31 come-from-behind victory over Cincinnati and the least amount of points scored was 16 in Chicago’s 16-0 shutout of Miami last Thursday night.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 12 in the NFL. All total lines quoted are courtesy of BetED.com.
Jacksonville @ New York (Giants) Over/Under: 45
Jacksonville’s offense is ranked 18th in the league in scoring; averaging 22 points per game. Its defense is ranked 27th in points allowed; giving up an average of 27 points per game.
New York’s offense is ranked seventh in the league in scoring; averaging 25.3 points per game. Its defense is 17th in points allowed, but has given up 60 points in its last two games.
The total has gone ‘over’ in the Jaguars last five road games and in their last four games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Giants last nine home games, in six of their last eight games as a favorite, and in four of their last five games overall. The Pick: OVER
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore Over/Under: 41
Tampa Bay’s offense is ranked 22nd in scoring; averaging 20.9 points per game. Its defense is ranked 11th in points allowed; giving up 20.6 per game. The Bucs have given up a total of 16 points in their last two games.
Baltimore’s offense is averaging 23.3 points per game, while its defense is giving up an average of 17.8 points per game. The Ravens have given up an average of 16.3 points in their last three games.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the Buccaneers last 14 games as an underdog and in 12 of their last 17 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the Ravens last 10 games following an ATS win and in four of their last five games as a favorite. The Pick: UNDER
San Diego @ Indianapolis Over/Under: 51 ½
San Diego has scored a total of 97 points in its last three games and is averaging 27.4 points per game overall, which is third highest in the league. The Chargers defense is giving up an average of 21.1 points per game.
Indianapolis has the fourth ranked scoring offense in the league; averaging 26.8 points per game. Its defense is giving up an average of 21.6 points per game for the season, but has given up an average of 24.7 points in its last three games.
The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Chargers last eight games following an ATS win and in four of their last five games against a team with a winning record. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the Colts last 11 games following an ATS win and in the last four games they were favored by three or less points. The Pick: OVER
Last week’s record: 1-2 YTD: 19-14
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