For the second week in a row the under bet was a slightly better play than the over. Seven games stayed under the total while six games went over. The surprising thing about week nine were how many high powered offenses where held in check. While New Orleans still managed to score 30 points against the Panthers, almost ten points below their average which was enough to keep this game from going over by two points. The Colts had their hands full with division rival Houston as they only managed 20 points keeping this game well below its total. The Cowboys stopped Philadelphia’s big play offense holding them to 16 points in a big NFC East win. Cincinnati made it two in a row over Baltimore, holding a Raven offense that had been averaging over 28 points per game to a single touchdown. In a game that went way over the total,Tampa Bay, in getting their first victory of the year scored 38 points against Green Bay which was almost as much as they scored in their last three games combined. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week nine.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans Current Over/Under 40.5
Tennessee led by QB Vince Young exploded for 34 points against San Francisco last week, winning their second game in a row. This high number could be a bit deceiving as 24 of those points were a direct result of 49er turnovers. While their offense has improved since Young became the starter, it is mostly because of the production on the ground by RB Chris Johnson who has run for 363 yards and 4TD’s in the last two games. Buffalo is coming off a bye, but in their last game they were waxed by Houston 31-10. Their offense is only averaging a little over 15 points per game and is ranked 29th in total yards per game. The Titans’ game plan will be simple; hand the ball off to Johnson who will be going against the worst rushing defense in the league. As long as the Bills do not turn the ball over too many times the score should stay low. I’m sticking with the UNDER in this one.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts Current Over/Under 49.5
In a match-up of two of the premier teams in the league along with the top two quarterbacks in the league, this game has fireworks written all over it. New England is playing like the Patriots of old as they have averaged over 40 points per game in their last three. New England’s Tom Brady is ranked third in the league in passing yards and Randy Moss is ranked 5th in receiving yards. If that is not enough firepower, Indianapolis’s Peyton Manning is ranked 2nd in passing yards and Reggie Wayne is ranked 2nd in receiving yards. Given the fact that the Patriots’ defense is ranked 2nd in points allowed at 14.4 per game and the Colts are ranked 1st, only giving up an average of 13.5 points per game explains why the over total isn’t 60+. There is just too much star power on both sidelines for this to be a low scoring affair. I love the OVER in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers Current Over/Under 47
San Diego has won three straight games and coupled with two straight Denver losses are right back in the thick of the AFC West race. Philadelphia is coming off a tough loss at home to Dallas, where the Cowboys were able to keep the Eagles’ offense from generating any big plays for scores. Both these teams live and die by moving the ball down the field in huge chunks and this game should be no different. The Chargers passing offense, led by QB Phillip Rivers is ranked 7th in the league while their running game is almost non-existent; ranked dead last. The Eagles have struck a balance in their attack as their running game is ranked 17th and their passing game is ranked 15th, but QB Donovan McNabb still loves to throw the ball down field as much as possible and WR DeSean Jackson leads the league in touchdowns over 50 yards. Look for some big plays and some quick strikes from both these teams as the points will add up fast. I’m all over the OVER.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.