NFL Week 1 – Over/Under Picks

Top Three ‘Over/Under’ Plays- NFL Week 1

The 2010 NFL regular season gets underway this Thursday night when Minnesota takes on New Orleans in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game. There is a full state of games on Sunday, Sept. 12 and two contests scheduled for Monday night.

After watching the preseason it is hard to get a solid handle on what to expect on opening day. Some team’s starting offense and defense have looked sharp, while some teams could probably use another few weeks of training camp to try and work out the kinks.

Here is a look at my top three plays on the ‘Over/Under’ line for Week 1 in the NFL.

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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills ‘Over/Under’ 38 ½

This AFC East division clash features two teams with offenses that are predicated around their running game. Miami may look to open things up a bit with QB Chad Henne, but Buffalo is going to go with a big dose of rookie RB C.J Spiller along with veteran backs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.

In the Dolphins last 13 games on the road the total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of them. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of the Bills last 11 games at home. In head-to-head play the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last 10 games. The away team has only scored 20 points or more in one of those 10 games. All this points to a hard fought, tight division battle.

The Pick – UNDER

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Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles ‘Over/Under’ 47 ½

The last time we watched Green Bay play a meaningful game, it had just rolled up 493 yards of total offense and scored 45 points only to lose in overtime to Arizona in the Wildcard round of the playoffs 51-45. For the most part, the exact same offense will take its show on the road to Philadelphia against an Eagles team that was ranked fifth in the league in average points per game with 26.8. The Packers just so happened to be ranked third; averaging 28.8 per game.

While the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last seven games against one another, they have not met since 2007. The total has gone ‘over’ in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 18 games and in seven of their last nine games at home. Both teams will come out trying to run the ball, but this one has the makings of an all-out aerial assault.

The Pick – OVER

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Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins ‘Over/Under’ 40 ½

This is one of the better rivalries in the NFL as these two teams from the NFC East have done a good job at developing a true dislike of one another over the years. That in itself makes this game conducive to a smash-mouth, hard hitting affair as opposed to finesse style game. Another factor that favors a low scoring battle is the current state of both team’s offenses. QB Tony Romo and the Cowboy’s offense have yet to find their rhythm as they struggled to get the ball into the end zone in the preseason. The Redskins are still adjusting to their new quarterback; Donovan McNabb. Because of a sprained ankle, McNabb has seen little practice time these past few weeks and that rust could become all too apparent on Sunday night against a very good Dallas defense.

The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the Cowboys last six games on the road. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of the Redskins last 15 games at home. In six of the last nine games between these two teams in Washington the total has stayed ‘under’. In two games last season these two teams managed to only score a combined 30 total points; a 7-6 Cowboys win at Dallas and a 17-0 Cowboys win at Washington.

The Pick – UNDER