Last week in the wildcard round of the playoffs, three games went over and one game went through the roof. In New York’s win over Cincinnati they scored a total of 38 points and the total line was 34. In Dallas’s romp over Philadelphia the total points scored were 48 and the total line was 45. Baltimore capitalized on four New England turnovers to help push this game over as well. They combined for 47 points against a total line of 43. Arizona scored 51 points in their game against Green Bay and the total line was 48. I forgot to mention that Green Bay added 45 points of their own making this the highest scoring playoff game in NFL History. Here is a brief preview of each game in the divisional round of the playoffs and my over/under pick for each.
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Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Current Over/Under 57
After last week’s incredible offensive performance against Green Bay, you have to wonder whether Arizona has another game like that in them. QB Kurt Warner completed 29 of 33 attempts for 379 yards and five TD’s. His 88% completion percentage and 154.1 passer rating are some of the highest numbers ever in post season play. The Cardinals face another gunslinger this week; New Orleans QB Drew Brees. Brees, a MVP runner up to Peyton Manning threw for close to 4400 yards and had 34 TD’s on the season. Both teams have a number of quality receivers with three of them; Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for Arizona and Marques Colston for New Orleans going over 1000 yards receiving for the year. Boldin missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, but should be able to go this week. Everything points to another track meet so I’m taking the OVER in this one.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Current Over/Under 44
The last time these two met was back in week 11 and while both teams combined for close to 800 yards of total offense, it did not translate into points as Indianapolis had to grind out a 17-15 win. Against the better defenses they have faced this season, the Colt’s offense has been held in check and Baltimore comes into this game having the 3rd ranked defense in the league. Indianapolis’s defense is solid as well. Despite the fact they are ranked 18th in yards allowed, they get stingy when it counts only giving up an average of 19.2 points per game, 8th best in the league. This one has the makings of another tough, hard fought battle that will result in more field goals being scored than touchdowns. I’m staying UNDER in this one.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Current Over/Under 45.5
Dallas’s defense is playing their best ball of the year as they have been able to put relentless pressure on opposing quarterbacks with just their front four, while their defensive secondary have been shutting down each team’s top receivers. Minnesota has the second ranked scoring offense in the league averaging 29.4 points per game. Even more impressive is the fact they are averaging close to 33 points per game at home so something has to give. This match-up comes down to Viking QB Brett Favre’s ability to quickly find the open the receiver to offset the Cowboy’s rush. Something tells me the wily old vet has at least one more big game left in his 40 year old body. I’m taking this game to go OVER.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers Current Over/Under 42
This game will be a battle of wills as New York brings their number one ranked defense to go up against one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Jets may be in a bit of trouble in this one as San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has had some of his best games of the season against the top defenses in the league. In facing three out of the top five ranked defenses (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh) he averaged 333 passing yards per game and threw for a total of eight TD’s. New York All-Pro CB Darrell Revis will be able to take one of the Chargers receivers out of the game, but not all of them. I look for TE Antonio Gates to come up big and for this game to go OVER the total.
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