NFL Conference Championships – Totals Predictions
While in the wildcard round of the playoffs all four games went over the total, last week in the divisional round three of the games stayed under and only one went over. Defense rose to the occasion as the combined points scored for the losing teams was only 34. New Orleans’ offense showed up last week but Arizona could not keep pace, none the less this game still went over the total line of 57 with 59 total points. Indianapolis only scored 20 points against Baltimore which was more than enough to win, but the 23 combined points scored came nowhere near the total line of 44. Minnesota’s defense completely shutdown Dallas holding them to just three points giving this game no chance to go over the total line of 45.5. San Diego’s high powered offense was held in check by New York’s shutdown defense as the two teams combined for just 31 points which was well below the total line of 42. Here is a brief preview of each of the conference championship games and my over/under pick for each.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Current Over/Under 39.5
The opening line started at 40.9 and at mid week has already dropped a point. After two back to back solid performances, especially against San Diego you can see why New York head coach Rex Ryan thinks his team should be favored to win it all. His #1 ranked defense completely frustrated Charger QB Drew Brees and will try and do the same to Colt’s QB Peyton Manning this week. His #1 ranked rushing offense racked up 169 yards on the ground with the deadly combination of RB’s Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. I would expect to see more of the same against an Indianapolis defense that is ranked 24th against the run. The problem the Jet’s have is scoring points as their game plan is not conducive to putting a lot of points on the scoreboard. The Colt’s on the other hand have no problem scoring points as a whole, but have definitely struggled against the better defenses that they have faced. One thing they have become extremely good at is scoring a few more points than their opponent which is all they will be looking to do against New York. In a defensive battle, I’m staying with the UNDER.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Current Over/Under 53
This line opened at 52.5 and has crept up a ½ point at mid week. Given the fact that the number one scoring offense in the league; New Orleans is playing the number two scoring offense; Minnesota you get the feeling the line could go up even a bit more. The Saints finished the regular season averaging 31.9 points per game and scored 45 against Arizona last week. The Vikings finished the regular season averaging 29.4 points per game and scored 34 against Dallas last week. While both teams do have a very good defense, there is a tremendous amount of star power on the other side of the ball for both teams. Just mentioning names like Brett Favre and Drew Brees conjures up images of two pass happy offenses going up and down the field on one another. In last week’s game Favre completed passes to seven different receivers and Brees completed them to six. No matter how good the coverage is or how fierce the pass rush, someone is going to be open and they will find them. Everyone expects a shootout and that is exactly what we are going to get. Take this game to go OVER.
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