AFC Championship Free Pick – Sunday, January 23, 2010
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New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 6:30 pm ET on CBS
The two teams are set for this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, as the surprising No. 6 seed New York Jets take on the No. 2 seed Pittsburgh Steelers with the winner earning a berth in Super Bowl XLV on Sunday February 6.
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BetED.com has opened the Jets as a 3 ½-point road underdog and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 38 ½ points. The fact that the spread is that tight against a team as good as the Steelers just goes to show the amount of respect that the odds makers are giving New York. It is either that or most of the early money bet on this game has been plopped down by all the eager Jet fans that think Mark Sanchez is the second coming of Joe ‘Willie’ Namath.
Either way, you still have to love New York’s chances in this game after it took out Indianapolis 17-16 in the Wildcard Round as a one-point road underdog and remained completely fearless against New England in a 28-21 victory as a 9 ½-point road underdog in the Divisional Round. It is not too often that you knock-off future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in consecutive weeks on the road.
The Jets had success even though the styles of each game were different from one another. The total against the Colts stayed ‘under’ the 44-point total as defense and a running game dictated play. Against the Patriots, the total went ‘over’ the 45 point line as Sanchez showed some big play capability by throwing for three touchdowns.
It is not a big surprise that Pittsburgh is back in the conference championship for the 15th time in franchise history. The Steelers finished tied with Baltimore at 12-4, but earned a first round bye and home field advantage by virtue of having a better division record than the Ravens.
Pittsburgh spotted Baltimore a 21-7 lead at the half in their Divisional Round contest, but made good use of the home town crowd as a 3 ½-point favorite to storm back to a 31-24 victory while taking the total well ‘over’ the 37 ½-point line along the way. The Steelers’ defense forced three Raven turnovers and held QB Joe Flacco and Co. to -4 yards of total offense in the game-changing third quarter.
New York is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of the Jets last 11 games on the road and in four of their last five games overall.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home and 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the Steelers last four games overall.
Head-to-head, the Jets have won three of the last five games SU and is 4-1 ATS. These two teams met in Week 15 with New York coming away with a 22-17 victory as a 3 ½-point road underdog. The total went ‘over’ the 36 point line. The game remained tight until the end, but a Jets’ field goal and safety late in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.
There is little doubt that Pittsburgh is a tough place to win a game in late January, but New York is no stranger to winning games in tough places. The Jets may not get the outright W, but take them to keep things close enough to cover with the 3 ½ points.
The odds makers have the Pittsburgh Steelers as a -3.5 point favorite with an over/under of 38.5.
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New York Jets Betting Trends:
- NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of the NY Jets last 11 games on the road
- NY Jets are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games on the road
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends:
- Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
- Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh’s last 11 games when playing NY Jets
- Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing NY Jets
i think the jets will win 28-14 because right now the jets are no 1 defense team in the whole NFL while the only reason Pittsburgh beat Baltimore ravens was due to two fumbles and 1 interception by the ravens the steelers only got down to red-zone twice the whole game by themselves 21 points was theirs due to being already in the red-zone by the two fumbles and the interception and Baltimore is rank 9 in defense plus in offensive Pittsburgh has Advantage but i doubt they will be able to overcome the jets defense