AFC Wild-Card Free Pick
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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, January 8, 2011 at 8:00 pm ET on NBC
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The Jets are looking to avenge last season’s 30-17 loss to Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game in which Peyton Manning had a field day picking their vaunted secondary apart. This year’s version of Rex Ryan’s Gang Green defense is not as formidable as last season’s but still capable of shutting any team down on a given day. The defense finished the regular season ranked third overall; sixth against the pass and third against the run. It gave up an average of 19 points per game which was sixth best in the league.
The Colts have endured numerous injuries on both sides of the ball but still found a way to win 10 games, the AFC South, and the third seed in the playoffs. The offense lost two of its best receivers in Dallas Clarke and Austin Collie, so it will once again be up to Peyton Manning to manufacture a win utilizing the back-up players he has around him. It is doubtful Indianapolis will be able to effectively run the ball, so look Manning to try and get it to guys like WR’s Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon along with TE Jacob Tamme to move the offense up and down the field.
New York is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against the AFC. Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as the favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last four meetings. This time around, the Jets will have the ability to grind out a win on the ground against a team that is not nearly as dominating at last year’s.
The odds makers have the Indianapolis Colts as a -2.5 point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.
Team records:
- New York: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
- Indianapolis: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS
New York Jets most recently:
- When playing in January are 6-4
- When playing on turf are 7-3
- After outgaining opponent are 9-1
- When playing outside the division are 7-3
Indianapolis Colts most recently:
- When playing in January are 6-4
- When playing on turf are 7-3
- After outgaining opponent are 7-3
- When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis’s last 7 games when playing NY Jets
- Indianapolis is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
- Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
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