NFC Championship Free Pick – Sunday, January 23, 2010
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Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 3:00 pm ET on FOX
It will be an old-fashioned black and blue NFC North division rivalry in this Sunday’s conference championship when the Green Bay Packers travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears in a 3 p.m. (ET) start. Even though this is the most played rivalry in the history of the NFL it will only be the second time these two storied franchises will have faced one another in the playoffs with the last time being in 1941.
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BetUs.com has opened the Packers as a 3 ½-point road favorite and the ‘Over/Under’ line has been set at 43 ½. This will be the third time in a row that Chicago has been a home underdog in this series. The Bears failed to cover as a four-point underdog in December of 2009 in a 21-14 loss, but they did cover as a three-point underdog in a 20-17 win in Week 3 of this season.
Green Bay took the long route to get to this game as the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Packers actually needed a 10-3 win over Chicago as an 11-point home favorite in the final game of the regular season to clinch a spot. They may have been one of the last teams invited to the postseason tournament, but have certainly proved they belong.
First, the Pack were able to contain Michael Vick and the No. 3 seed Philadelphia Eagles in a 21-16 victory in the Wildcard Round as a one-point road underdog. The total in this game stayed ‘under’ the 46 ½-point line. They then bulldozed their way over the No.1 seed Atlanta Falcons 48-21 in the Divisional Round as a one-point road dog. The total this time around went well over the 43 ½ point line.
Chicago caught a huge break when the Eagles were stunned by Minnesota in a Week 16 loss, as this paved the way for a first round bye in the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the conference. The Bears made the most of their week off by jumping out to a 21-0 lead over No. 4 seed Seattle en route to a 35-24 victory as a 10-point home favorite in last week’s Divisional Round. The total went way ‘over’ the 42 ½-point line.
The only concern for the Bears heading into this game is the 21 points their defense gave up to Seattle in the final quarter of that contest. The game was already well in hand heading into fourth, but Head Coach Lovie Smith cannot be pleased with his prized unit’s effort down the stretch.
The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of Green Bay’s last 10 road games.
The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in Chicago’s last four home games and in six of its last seven games overall.
Head-to-head, the Packers have won four of the last six games SU and are also 4-2 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last six games in Chicago and in eight of the last 10 meetings overall.
These teams are evenly matched across the board, so the difference this time around could rest on the performance of each team’s quarterback. Chicago’s QB Jay Cutler has done a good job moving the team up and down the field, while taking care of the football, but Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best ball in the history of the playoffs. If both continue at their current pace, the Packers will be waltzing into their first Super Bowl since Brett Favre led them there in the late ‘90’s.
The odds makers have the Green Bay Packers as a -3.5 point favorite with an over/under of 43.5.
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Green Bay Packers Betting Trends:
- Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Green Bay’s last 10 games on the road
- Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago Bears Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago’s last 7 games
- Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games at home
- Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
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