Oregon vs Oregon State | Predictions

NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, December 4, 2010

vs.

No. 2 Oregon (11-0, 8-0) at Oregon State (5-6, 4-4), 3:30 p.m., ABC

The Ducks are one win away from playing for national title. But first, they must take care of the Beavers in the Civil War. It has been a disappointing season in Corvallis, but ending Oregon’s national title run would be a nice consolation prize.

The spread is more than two touchdowns, and normally I would tend to think that is way too many points for a rivalry game of this caliber. However, Mike Riley’s Beavers are just not the same team after losing James Rodgers.

Combine that with the 400 yards allowed defensively per game and Chip Kelly’s Ducks spread offense and this could get ugly early.

The Beavs only hope to score early and in bunches and dam up the flood as the Ducks have a tendency to start slow and then pile it on at the end.

Sorry Beavers fans, I think this is the end of the road.

Prediction: Oregon – Bet Now

Odds: Oregon: -16.5 – Oregon State: +16.5 – Over/Under: 64

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Team records:

• Oregon: 11-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS
• Oregon State: 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS

Oregon Ducks most recently:

• When playing in December are 5-4-1
• When playing on turf are 10-0
• After outgaining opponent are 9-1
• When playing within the conference are 10-0

Oregon State Beavers most recently:

• When playing in December are 7-3
• When playing on turf are 4-6
• After being outgained are 5-5
• When playing within the conference are 5-5

A few betting trends to consider:

• Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon’s last 5 games when playing Oregon State
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State’s last 5 games when playing Oregon
• Oregon State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oregon
• Oregon State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
• Oregon State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

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