Northwestern Wildcats 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Northwestern 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Northwestern 2008 Bowl: Alamo Bowl vs. Missouri (L 23-30)
Northwestern Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (19-18 at Northwestern, 19-18 overall)
Northwestern Offensive Coordinator: Mick McCall
Northwestern Defensive Coordinator: Mike Hankwitz
Northwestern Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Mike Kafka, QB, 321 yards
• Passing: Mike Kafka, QB, 330 yards
• Receiving: Jeremy Ebert, WR, 161 yards
• Tackles: Brad Phillips, S, 109
• Sacks: Corey Wootton, DE, 10.0
• Interceptions: Jordan Mabin, CB, 3; Brad Phillips, S, 3

Notable Northwestern Returning Players: G Doug Bartels, DT Corbin Bryant, C Ben Burkett, LB Quentin Davie, CB Sherrick McManis, OT Al Netter, S Brendan Smith, OT Desmond Taylor, LB Nate Williams

Northwestern Key Losses: QB C.J. Bacher, DT John Gill, G Keegan Kennedy, LB Prince Kwateng, WR Ross Lane, DE Kevin Mims, WR Eric Peterman, RB Tyrell Sutton, K Amado Villarreal, WR Rasheed Ward

Northwestern did not challenge themselves during their out of conference schedule in 2008. The result was a 5-0 start to the season. However, the team did have some big wins on the road against Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. Wins like those do not happen very often, especially outside of Evanston, Illinois.

Northwestern’s Strength:

Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald is on the complete opposite trajectory from Bielema. He was the youngest coach in the country when his first team went 4-8 in 2006. However, 2007 showed improvement and a 6-6 record was the result. Last fall, Fitzgerald produced the school’s first nine win season since he was an All-American linebacker in 1996. While no one realistically expects Fitzgerald to improve the Wildcats’ win total once more this fall, there is no question that the 34 year old coach is looking at a long and bright future coaching at his alma mater. Northwestern has some work to do rebuilding their offense this fall but the Wildcats should continue to be a very tough team defensively. Can Fitzgerald lead his team to back to back bowl games for the first time since 1996?

The offense struggled moving the ball through the air last fall due to injuries at the quarterback position and they ended up only averaging 24 points per game. This year, there are only five starters back but the good news is that four of those starters are on the offensive line! Expect senior quarterback Mike Kafka to have plenty of time to make decisions this fall. Kafka played well during spurts in 2008 and showed great mobility, setting the Big Ten record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game against Minnesota when he ran for 217 yards! Kafka still has some work to do developing as a passer but I think he’ll have a good year.

Pass catching is also a big question mark as the top three wide receivers from last season have departed. However, Fitzgerald felt optimistic about the state of his wideouts and senior Andrew Brewer is particularly physical. The tailbacks also should be better than expected after losing four year star Tyrell Sutton. Junior Stephen Simmons appears to be the top option heading into the season, though true freshman Arby Fields has impressed greatly during camp. Expect a bit of a different offense this fall because of Kafka’s rushing ability but I think that the Wildcats should do some damage this year.

On the other side of the ball, there is no question that the defense is the strength of the team. After finishing 4th in the Big Ten in scoring defense last year, the Cats should continue to field a very tough defense with eight starters back. The best player on the team is senior defensive end Corey Wootton, who racked up 10 sacks last fall and was a 1st team All-Big Ten selection. Wootton hurt his knee in the final moments of Northwestern’s overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl but is expected to be fully healthy to start the year and is expected to be a high 1st round NFL draft pick in April. He’ll be the best player on what I believe is a highly underrated line. Remember the name Vince Browne: The sophomore end is ready for a huge year opposite Wootton after impressing in limited action last fall.

The linebackers are also a solid unit with two returning junior starters. While they’ll miss Prince Kwateng, who made 106 tackles last year, Nate Williams and Quentin Davis are very solid players who should contribute towards an effective run defense. The secondary is probably the strongest part of the defense as all four starters are back. Senior safeties Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith were the team’s 1st and 3rd leading tacklers, respectively, combining for 191 stops and 5 interceptions. Expect a very strong year from both. The cornerbacks are also solid, highlighted by sophomore Jordan Mabin, whose 52 tackles, 3 interceptions and solid play earned him 1st team Freshman All-American honors last year. Along with talented senior Sherrick McManis, Mabin forms one of the league’s strongest cornerback tandems. Honestly, people continually underrate Northwestern but no one had better overlook this defense in 2009 because they are very good. Expect another strong performance from the Cats.

The schedule is rather light. The non-conference schedule is even easier than last year’s weak undertaking and the only BCS conference opponent comes during an early trip to Syracuse. I will be very disappointed if the Wildcats don’t finish 4-0 outside of the conference. In Big Ten play, they avoid Ohio State and Michigan but must travel to burgeoning rival Iowa, talented Michigan State and archrival Illinois. There are no major impediments for the Cats here but their final four games will be pretty tough as they host Penn State before traveling to Iowa and Illinois in back to back weeks before closing out at home against Wisconsin.

Overall, Northwestern is perpetually underrated. The Wildcats are always picked towards the bottom of the standings and they usually overachieve. In Fitzgerald’s three seasons, his teams have taken on his distinct personality of focus and hard-nosed play, attributes that made him a two time All-American during his playing days. All reports indicate that Northwestern has been competing their hearts out in camp and are hungry to field another excellent team. While I don’t expect the Wildcats to win as many games as last year, part of me feels like I’m not giving them enough credit in predicting a seven win season. In short, I fully expect Northwestern to earn another bowl berth this fall and wouldn’t be remotely surprised if they finished better than 3-5 in Big Ten play. Pat Fitzgerald is the perfect coach for the Wildcats and I can’t ever imagine him leaving his alma mater, so the future looks very bright on the North Side of Chicago.

Northwestern Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Syracuse, Sept. 26th vs. Minnesota, Oct. 17th @ MSU, Oct. 31st vs. PSU, Nov. 7th @ Iowa, Nov. 14th @ Illinois, Nov. 21st vs. Wisconsin

Northwestern’s Weakness:

There were times last year when Northwestern had to survive without quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton, both of whom struggled with injuries. Now they have to live without those two for an entire season. Mike Kafka proved to be a capable quarterback who could make plays with his feet, but his passing and decision making was erratic. His experience last year cannot hurt, but he must turn into a leader of the offense and keep the mistakes to a minimum. It would also be beneficial if Kafka did not lead the team in rushing or feel the need to scramble as often as he did last season. Stephen Simmons, who ran for 178 yards on 62 carries as a sophomore last year is the most experienced running back, but redshirt freshman Alex Daniel and sophomore Jeravin Matthews could see some carries as well.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Wildcats:

Despite all of the turnover among the skill players on offense, they are set up to be successful due to the offensive line. Northwestern ranked second in the conference in sacks allowed while starting three freshmen on the line. Those freshmen are now experienced sophomores and there are plenty of experienced upperclassmen ready to fill the rest of the holes. A successful offense has to have a good line and that is especially true in the Big Ten. If the Wildcats can create space and time for the running backs and Kafka, this could be a surprisingly dangerous offense.

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