Mississippi Rebels 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Mississippi 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Mississippi 2008 Bowl: Cotton Bowl vs. Texas Tech (W 47-34)
Mississippi Coach: Houston Nutt (9-4 at Mississippi, 120-74 overall)
Mississippi Offensive Coordinator: Kent Austin
Mississippi Defensive Coordinator: Tyrone Nix
Mississippi Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Dexter McCluster, WR, 655 yards
• Passing: Jevan Snead, QB, 2,762 yards
• Receiving: Shay Hodge, WR, 725 yards
• Tackles: Kendrick Lewis, S, 85
• Sacks: Greg Hardy, DE, 8.5
• Interceptions: Kendrick Lewis, S, 4

Notable Mississippi Returning Players: LB Jonathan Cornell, RB Cordera Eason, C Daverin Geralds, CB Marshay Green, TE Gerald Harris, OT John Jerry, DT Ted Laurent, DE Kentrell Lockett, DE Marcus Tillman, CB Cassius Vaughn, LB Allen Walker

Mississippi Key Losses: DE Chris Bowers, FB Jason Cook, LB Tony Fein, S Terrell Jackson, DT Peria Jerry, G Maurice Miller, CB Dustin Mouzon, OT Michael Oher, LB Ashlee Palmer, S Jamarca Sanford, WR Mike Wallace

The boys from Dixie were the darlings of college football in 2008 after upsetting the Florida Gators in the Swamp. Ole Miss’ 9-4 record was their best finish since Eli Manning was under center and all four of Mississippi’s losses came by a touchdown or less. While I was one of the few people in the preseason last year to give Ole Miss a lot of credit, even I didn’t foresee their incredible run in Houston Nutt’s first season in charge. The big question is whether the Rebels can repeat their success now that they can’t sneak up on any teams. With 16 starters back and a huge pool of talent, I wouldn’t bet against them.

The Ole Miss offense is run by the division’s best quarterback, junior Jevan Snead, who threw for 2,700 yards and 26 touchdowns last fall. What was really impressive was that 2008 was his first full season starting at the college level, so it isn’t unreasonable to expect him to improve even further. While leading receiver Mike Wallace is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, seniors Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster each had 44 catches last fall and there is a ton of young talent behind them. I expect an even better passing attack this fall from the Rebels.

The running game should also be excellent as the top four rushers from last season all return. Senior Cordera Eason and the extremely versatile McCluster each rushed for over 600 yards while sophomore Brandon Bolden contributed over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns. Expect the committee situation to also include sophomore Enrique Davis this season and I expect that Ole Miss will have another very strong year running the football. The offensive line returns three senior starters and should be a strong unit once more, though losing two 3-year starters will definitely hurt. Despite the losses, there is so much talent on hand and I expect Snead to get even better in his second season. Ole Miss has one of the SEC’s best offenses.

What’s really impressive is that their defense might actually be better. After finishing 4th in the SEC in scoring defense last fall, eight starters are back and former head coach Ed Orgeron’s recruiting is really paying off for Nutt. Up front, there is so much talent across the board. While losing 1st round tackle Peria Jerry will hurt a little bit, it helps when you can plug in a two time All-SEC performer like senior Greg Hardy (8.5 sacks last year, 10 sacks in 2007) in his place. This is the deepest line in the conference and I expect Ole Miss to be death to opposing running games this season considering they also return two starters at linebacker.

The secondary is also a bright spot, as three senior starters return. Safety Kendrick Lewis led the team with 85 tackles and 4 interceptions last fall and cornerbacks Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn combined for 5 picks as well. There is some solid depth behind them and I expect Ole Miss to improve significantly against the pass this year after allowing over 220 yards per game through the air in 2008. Overall, Ole Miss has an excellent defense and I really think that they’re almost on the same level as Florida and Alabama in terms of talent.

Unfortunately, I have to put my praise on hold for a moment. That’s because Ole Miss plays the most pathetic non-conference schedule in the entire country. They play TWO D-1AA teams and don’t play a single BCS conference opponent! If Ole Miss wins the SEC with one loss and they’re tied with two other one loss teams for a berth in the National Title game, I’m voting the Rebels third on principle. Their SEC schedule is also very favorable as they avoid Georgia and Florida from the East and host Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Alabama! Beware an early Thursday night trip to South Carolina, which appears to be their only difficult road game all year.

Since the SEC split into two divisions in the early 90s, every single SEC West team has played in the conference title game except one: Ole Miss. Well, with such an exceptional team returning after breaking out last fall, I think that streak ends this season. While Houston Nutt deserves a lot of credit for turning around the Rebels, former coach Ed Orgeron recruited really well during his tenure and the wealth of talent on hand is largely his responsibility. Ole Miss is probably the 3rd most talented team in the entire league and I think that they have a great chance at not only playing for the conference title but winning it for the first time since Archie Manning was in college. If things bounce the right way, Ole Miss could be a darkhorse in the National Title chase.

Mississippi Big Games: Sept. 24th @ South Carolina, Oct. 10th vs. Alabama, Oct. 24th vs. Arkansas, Oct. 31st @ Auburn, Nov. 14th vs. Tennessee, Nov. 21st vs. LSU, Nov. 28th @ Mississippi State

Ole Miss’s Strength:

Jevan Snead has turned into a solid quarterback and he has a few dynamic weapons to work with, most notably Dexter McCluster and Shay Hodge. McCluster actually led the team in rushing yards with 655 and rushing touchdowns with six. But he also tied Hodge with a team high 44 receptions. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry was a first round draft pick, but the Rebels front seven will still be dominating. Last year Mississippi only allowed the opposition to rush for 85.5 yards per game. While Jerry was certainly a big part of that success, the line will still be dominating off the end with Greg Hardy, Kentrell Lockett and Marcus Tillman. The linebackers lose a couple key pieces, but Jonathan Cornell is ready to become a leader.

Ole Miss’s Weakness:

Safety Kendrick Lewis is a superb player who led the team in tackles and interceptions, but the secondary gave up the most passing yards in the SEC. Corners Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn have to do a better job and they will be without part-time starter Dustin Mouzon. For a team that does such a great job getting to the quarterback, the secondary should not get beat as badly and as often as they do. Perhaps the most painful loss is that of offensive tackle Michael Oher. He was not always consistent, but his massive presence will certainly be missed. Coach Nutt loves to run the ball and that will be more difficult without Oher. But it will be easier with running backs Cordera Eason and Brandon Bolden returning.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Rebels:

Mississippi could be a sleeper in the SEC. They have a solid quarterback in Snead, a couple quality wide receivers, a stable of capable running backs and a dynamic playmaker in McCluster. However, the difference between a good year and a great year will be the play of both lines. How quickly can the Rebels replace Jerry and Oher? It all starts with the lines and if they struggle, the Mississippi offense and defense will not be as good as they should be.

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