Hawaii Warriors 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Hawaii 2008 Record: (7-7, 5-3)
Hawaii 2008 Bowl: Hawaii Bowl vs. Notre Dame (L 21-49)
Hawaii Coach: Greg McMackin (7-7 at Hawaii, 7-7 overall)
Hawaii Offensive Coordinator: Ron Lee
Hawaii Defensive Coordinator: Cal Lee
Hawaii Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Kealoha Pilares, RB, 300 yards
• Passing: Greg Alexander, QB, 1,895 yards
• Receiving: Greg Salas, WR, 831 yards
• Tackles: John Fonoti, DE, 62
• Sacks: John Fonoti, DE, 3.5
• Interceptions: Brashton Satele, LB, 1

Notable Hawaii Returning Players: C John Estes, QB Inokie Funaki, OT Aaron Kia, WR Malcolm Lane, G Laupepa Letuli

Hawaii Key Losses: WR Aaron Bain, CB Jameel Dowling, LB Solomon Elimimian, K Dany Kelly, LB Adam Leonard, DT Joshua Leonard, RB Daniel Libre, S Keao Monteilh, CB Ryan Mouton, S Erik Robinson, OT Keoni Steinhoff, G Lafu Tuioti-Mariner, DE David Veikune, WR Michael Washington, DT Keala Watson

It was no surprise that Hawai’i took a step back last year; After all, 2007 was only the best season in school history as the Warriors went 12-1 and earned a BCS bowl birth. After head coach June Jones departed for SMU and star quarterback Colt Brennan left for the NFL, the Warriors finished the regular season with a 7-6 record and finished off the year with a bowl game blowout loss for the 2 nd consecutive season. The picture isn’t going to be any prettier this year as Hawai’i only brings back nine starters and faces a very difficult schedule.

Last season, the Warriors scored nearly twenty less points per game than 2007! While their production was still a respectable 24.5 points per game, it was a long way away from the Colt Brennan days. Brennan’s replacement, senior Greg Alexander, had a solid year (1,985 yards, 14 TDs and only 5 picks) after taking over halfway through. During his seven starts, Hawai’i averaged 30.3 points per game, over a touchdown of improvement over their 1 st half pace. His receivers appear to be solid as juniors Malcolm Lane (613 yards, 6 TDs) and Greg Salas (831 yards, 3 TDs) will provide leadership in the Warriors’ four wide set. The offensive line struggled last fall, allowing 57 sacks (one short of the NCAA record!), but I expect that they’ll improve this year with three starters back, including 1 st team All-WAC center John Estes. Hawai’i doesn’t’ emphasize the run in their offense but their top five rushers from last year return so they should be productive enough for their scheme. I expect Hawai’i’s offense to be a much stronger group this fall, though I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a return to the high flying days of 2006 and 2007.

The defense, on the other hand, is one gigantic question mark as only two starters return. Even worse, there is very little experience as only two of their top thirteen tacklers are back! Those two are seniors John Fonoti, who had 62 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year, and Brashton Satele, whose 59 tackles was the lowest of the three starting linebackers a year ago. The defensive line had a lot to replace last year as well but Hawai’i managed to compensate thanks to the presence of Solomon Elimimian, the WAC’s all-time leading tackler. He is now departed as well. Look for Hawai’i to have trouble against the run. The secondary is an absolute blank slate, as they have to replace everyone. To give you an idea of how little we really know about the secondary, the leading returning tackler is junior safety Spencer Smith, who had 12 tackles last year. When a team has to replace virtually the entire defense, it is never a good sign and I can’t even possibly predict where this defense will go this fall. What I can predict is a lot of growing pains and that means that the Warriors are going to give up a lot of points and are the odds-on favorite to field the conference’s worst defense.

The schedule, usually Hawai’i’s friend thanks to the enormous home field advantage that the lengthy flight to the islands usually affords them, is also very difficult. Hawai’i has conference road trips to Nevada, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech, which is the longest in-conference road trip in the country. Furthermore, they have six road games! Why is this such a big deal? Well, the Warriors have had one season in the past eight years with less than seven wins, yet their record away from home is an underwhelming 19-20! While the Warriors usually clean up at home, this year they have to host Fresno State, Boise State, Navy and Wisconsin! I couldn’t think of a much tougher schedule for Hawai’i to play this year. On top of that, since the NCAA allows them to play 13 games to cover travel costs, the Warriors need seven wins to become bowl eligible. Frankly, that simply isn’t going to happen this year. While I really think Hawai’i’s offense is going to be much better this fall, they’re going to be on the wrong end of a lot of 38-35 games thanks to their completely new defense and the schedule is also far tougher than the past few seasons. I think Hawai’i will have serious trouble winning the usual minimal bowl requirement of six games, much less the seven that they actually need. Expect Hawai’i to miss a bowl for only the second time in nine years this fall.

Hawaii Big Games: Sept. 30th @ Louisiana Tech, Oct. 10th vs. Fresno State, Oct. 24th vs. Boise State, Oct. 31st @ Nevada, Nov. 21st @ San Jose State

Hawaii’s Strength:

Quarterback Greg Alexander might not be the second coming of Brennan, but he did a decent job while starting the last six games of the season. On the year he connected on nearly 63 percent of his pass attempts and threw 14 touchdowns and just five interceptions. That should be enough to keep Alexander firmly entrenched on top of the depth chart. With receivers Malcolm Lane and Greg Salas back, the passing attack could be one of the best in the nation, again. The offensive line should be in good shape with the return of three starters, most notably center John Estes. That should help out running back Kealoha Pilares. He only carried the ball 56 times last season, but he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and could be in for a big year if he is given the opportunity.

Hawaii’s Weakness:

The defense ranked third in the conference in total yards in 2008, but it would be a miracle if they can do that again. Nine starters are gone and the unit will not be the same without Solomon Elimimian, Adam Leonard and David Veikune…among others. The lone returning starters are defensive end John Fonoti and linebacker Brashton Satele. Fonoti will be the leader of the line after tallying 3.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles-for-loss in 2008. Now a senior, the Warriors will depend upon Fonoti. The same can be said for Satele. The 6-1 linebacker is not as experienced as Fonoti, but he will have to step up and become a leader in the middle of the field and help out all the youngsters who will be forced into major playing time.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Warriors:

This is not quite the Hawaii of old, but Coach McMackin needs time to get the ball rolling, or more accurately, get the ball flying. And it will happen sooner or later. The offense will get back to their high flying ways and that is all Hawaii needs to get to a bowl game. But this year the offense might not be good enough to do it on its own and the defense is unlikely to help.

Hawaii Betting Odds

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