Air Force Falcons 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Air Force 2008 Record: (8-5, 5-3)
Air Force 2008 Bowl: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Houston (L 28-34)
Air Force Coach: Troy Calhoun (17-9 at Air Force, 17-9 overall)
Air Force Offensive Coordinator: Clay Hendrix, Blane Morgan and Mike Thiessen
Air Force Defensive Coordinator: Tim DeRuyter
Air Force Returning Stats Leaders:Rushing: Asher Clark, RB, 588 yards

• Passing: Tim Jefferson, QB, 655 yards
• Receiving: Kyle Halderman, WR, 266 yards
• Tackles: Ken Lamendola, LB, 118
• Sacks: Ben Garland, DT, 4.0
• Interceptions: Reggie Rembert, CB, 3

Notable Air Force Returning Players: OT Chris Campbell, G Nick Charles, WR Josh Cousins, G Peter Lusk, LB Justin Moore, LB Andre Morris, S Chris Thomas, CB Anthony Wright

Air Force Key Losses: LB Hunter Altman, TE Travis Dekker, K/P Ryan Harrison, DE Ryan Kemp, S Aaaron Kirchoff, FB Todd Newell, WR Ty Paffett, DE Jake Paulson, C Andrew Pipes, OT Keith Williams

The Falcons continued their renaissance under head coach Troy Calhoun in 2008, notching an 8-5 record and finishing with a winning conference mark for the 2 nd consecutive season. Calhoun brought an option attack to Colorado Springs and a renewed emphasis on defense and it has paid dividends. Much like their better known military brethren at the Naval Academy, Air Force will try to control the clock and run the ball down your throat. Expect the Falcons to continue their winning ways this fall.

The offense was almost too one dimensional in 2008, rushing for 267 yards per game against only 82 yards passing. This was in large part due to the presence of true freshmen Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark at quarterback, though both were impressive at times last fall. Clark was more of a runner and accounted for 588 yards and 5 touchdowns and will begin this season as the starting tailback. On the other hand, Jefferson was also solid running for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns but he threw for 655 yards and 5 touchdowns as well. With both returning after being thrown into the fire last fall, expect the Falcons’ running game to be even better this season. In fact, six of their top seven rushers from last season return and Air Force should have a lot of strong contributors available for action. The offensive line is also very good, led by senior guard Nick Charles, who was a 1 st team All-MWC selection last fall. This is vital as the Falcons will need them to open up a lot of holes in for their tailbacks. Another underrated aspect to Air Force’s rushing attack is that they’ve been very good at protecting the football, posting a plus 23 turnover margin in Calhoun’s two seasons! I expect Air Force to be the best running team in the conference this fall and improve upon their passing game in the process. That equates to a much stronger offense for the Falcons in 2009.

Air Force has also produced solid defenses in both of Calhoun’s first two years, allowing 22 points per game last fall. Up front, the defensive line returns two starters but loses 1 st team All-MWC performer Jake Garland. The remaining group didn’t have lot of success getting to the quarterback last fall and will likely be their best against the run. The Falcons play a 3-4 defense and return two starters at linebacker, including 2008’s leading tackler, junior Ken Lamendola. However, there are a lot of players who saw the field last year and the Falcons return much more experience this season than they did in 2008 so I expect the linebackers to be improved. The secondary should be the strength of the defense, led by senior safety Chris Thomas, who had 107 tackles, 5 sacks, and an interception last season. Both starting corners return as well after combining for over a hundred tackles and four interceptions in 2008. I expect the Falcons to improve against both the pass and run in 2009, meaning that they should field Calhoun’s best defense yet.

The schedule is fairly tough as the Falcons only have six home games. In the conference schedule, they must travel to BYU and Utah but host Wyoming, UNLV and TCU. Their battle for the Commander in Chief’s Trophy has them traveling to face nemesis Navy while hosting Army and the Falcons will look to wrest the military academies’ rivalry trophy away from Navy for the first time in six seasons. The Falcons also have a huge road game at Minnesota for the Gophers’ opening of their new brand new stadium. Overall, I think Air Force will field a devastating rushing attack on offense that will only improve from last season now that the quarterback has some experience. Furthermore, their defense will benefit from the offense holding the football for prolonged periods of time and I think the Falcons will again finish with a very good turnover margin. Expect Air Force to be a darkhorse in the conference title chase and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons won their first Commander In Chief’s Trophy under Calhoun as well. The Falcons have a good shot at eclipsing last season’s eight win total and should definitely be bowl bound once more.

Air Force Big Games: Oct. 3rd @ Navy, Oct. 10th vs. TCU, Oct. 24th @ Utah, Nov. 7th vs. Army, Nov. 14th vs. UNLV, Nov. 21st @ BYU

Air Force’s Strength:

Few teams in the nation run as well as Air Force and that will again be what this team does. Running back Asher Clark is back after rushing for 588 yards as a freshman and he should be in for a big year. The absence of Todd Newell is a concern, but there are a handful of players, most notably Jared Tew who averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry in limited action last year, ready to pick up the slack. Quarterback Tim Jefferson was also just a freshman last year and did an admirable job. Air Force, perhaps a little ironically, will not go to the air too often, but Jefferson proved to be a decent decision maker who could make plays with his legs when the passing attack was not functioning. With three linemen returning who started last year, the rushing attack should be just as strong as it was in 2008.

Air Force’s Weakness:

The defense was a big surprise last year, but it remains to be seen if they can keep it up. Jake Pauslon came out of nowhere and tallied 9.0 sacks and 14.5 tackles-for-loss. His consistent pressure into the backfield made the entire unit much more effective. Even fellow end Ryan Kemp is gone and now it will be up to nose guard Ben Garland to be the experienced player on the line and the coaching staff has to find a couple new ends who can get pressure on the quarterback. The back eight return six starters, most notably linebacker Ken Lamendola and defensive backs Reggie Rembert and Chris Thomas, but will they be as effective if the front line cannot get pressure on the opposing quarterback?

Our Prediction for the 2009 Falcons:

The offense was pretty young last year and that year of experience should be huge for players like Clark and Jefferson. The Falcons have the potential to put up quite a few points and they are always tough to stop with their dynamic rushing attack. The difference between a good season and an average season will be the play of the defense. If Paulson and Kemp can be replaced relatively effectively, Air Force will be back for their third straight bowl appearance.

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