Free NCAA Pick – Saturday, February 27, 2010
#10 New Mexico Lobos (26-3) vs. #13 BYU Cougars (26-3)
The No. 13 BYU Cougars will host the No. 10 Mountain West Conference leader the New Mexico Lobos at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah on Saturday night, in a battle for the top spot in the division.
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The game marks the first-ever matchup of top 15 squads in the Mountain West’s 11 seasons. In the previous meeting, the then- No. 23 Lobos snapped the Cougars’ 15-game winning streak, beating them by a final of 76-72, at The Pit back on Jan 27.
The Lobos are on a 12-game unbeaten streak, beating Colorado State 72-66 on Tuesday night. Junior guard Dairese Gary scored 23 points, Roman Martinez had 17, while Darington Hobson had 15 points and 10 rebounds and Phillip McDonald added 10 points in the win. It was a close contest with the difference being an 18-of-23 performance at the charity stripe by the Lobos in the second half. Hobson, a transfer from the College of Eastern Utah, has been the Lobos go to player this season. He is one of five players to have started all 28 games for New Mexico and leads the club in scoring (15.5 ppg), rebounding (8.8 rpg) and assists (129). The Lobos are averaging 76.9 ppg, while holding their opponents to just 66.4 per contest.
On the other hand, the Cougars are sitting just one game back of New Mexico in the conference and win could move them into a tie with one game at hand. They are currently on a four game win streak with their latest coming by way of an 82-68 thumping of San Diego State on Wednesday. Cougs leading scorer Jimmer Fredette scored 26 points and Jackson Emery added 18 to move within a half-game of first place in the Mountain West Conference. Emery had seven rebounds and Fredette grabbed six to help the Cougars outwork the conference’s best rebounding team, 38-37. BYU is outscoring their opponents by an average of 19 points per contest.
The odds makers have BYU as –8-point favorites in this one.
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BYU’s challenge will be to stop New Mexico’s versatile attack. This won’t be an easy win for the Cougars, who are 15-0 at the Marriott Center, as the Lobos won a school-record 10 times on the road including six straight.
I expect the Cougars to edge out a narrow 3-point victory over the Lobos who are winning but seem to be stuttering against much less potent teams of late.
- BYU is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- BYU is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of BYU’s last 5 games
- BYU is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
- New Mexico is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- New Mexico is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Mexico’s last 5 games
- New Mexico is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
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