NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Thursday, February 17, 2011
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Alabama (16-8, 8-2 SEC) at LSU (10-15, 2-8 SEC)
Date/Time: Thursday, February 17, 2011, 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Pete Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge, LA
Broadcast: ESPN
Money Line: Alabama -450 / LSU +350
Spread: Alabama -9 ½
Over/Under: 121
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After starting SEC conference play 2-0, the LSU Tigers looked like they might be on their way to respectable season and maybe even a shot at this year’s NCAA Tournament.
But thing completely went off the rails against Kentucky as the Tigers were massacred 82-44. That loss set the wheels in motion for an eight-game losing skid that has dropped LSU to 2-8 and tied with Auburn for last in the SEC West.
The Tigers are coming in off a 19-point defeat on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks were deadly from three point range and outshot LSU 58 to 27 percent. Turnovers were a glaring part of the loss, with 17 giveaways for the Tigers. Matt Derenbecker led all scoring for the Tigers with 13 points on 45% shooting in 28 minutes.
LSU is easily one of the worst offensive teams in the country averaging only 62.7 PPG on 40 percent shooting to go with 35.5 RPG. Andre Stringer is averaging 12.2 PPG and a team high three APG while Ralston Turner is also averaging 12.2 PPG to lead the Tigers. Malcolm White averages 8.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.3 BPG.
Meanwhile, Alabama comes into Thursday’s contest as winners of six of their last seven games and are 8-2 and 3.5 games ahead of Arkansas and Mississippi State in the SEC West. In their last seven games, their only loss came to Vanderbilt by four and some highlighted wins have been against Kentucky, Tennessee, Miss State, and Ole Miss their last time out.
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Alabama sealed the deal shooting 46percent from three-point range. Tony Mitchell put up the most points against the Rebels with 20 points while Trevor Releford added seven huge assists.
Alabama averages 68.5 PPG on 45.8 percent shooting and they are 48th in the country with 37.9 RPG. JaMycal Green leads the Crimson Tide with 16 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 2.2 BPG. Mitchell is averaging 15.8 PPG and 7.3 RPG while Releford is averaging 10.1 PPG and a team high 3.6 APG.
Bama is 3-6 ATS on the road while the Tigers are 4-4-1 ATS at home.
The odds makers have the Alabama Crimson Tide as a -9.5 point favorite with an over/under of 121.
Matt’s Free Pick: Alabama – This is a colossal mismatch as Alabama knocked off LSU by 24 at home earlier in conference play. The Crimson Tide should have no problem completing the season sweep and covering the points in this one on the road.
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Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends:
- Alabama is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
- Alabama is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Alabama’s last 13 games on the road
- Alabama is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LSU
LSU Tigers Betting Trends:
- LSU is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
- LSU is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LSU’s last 11 games
- LSU is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
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