Dallas Mavericks v Miami Heat NBA Pick
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The Dallas Mavericks will look to even the series after a convincing defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat during game one of the NBA Finals before heading to Dallas for a three-game home stretch.
Date/Time: Thursday, June 2, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center in Miami, FL.
Broadcast: ABC
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Betting Lines
Money Line: Dallas +175, Miami -210
Spread: Heat -4 ½
Over/Under: 186
In the first game of the NBA Finals Miami won 92-84 over the Dallas Mavericks. Lebron James won his first Finals’ game in five tries scoring 24 points. The “big three” combined for 65 points in game one, and Dwyane Wade scored 22 points adding 10 rebounds.
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Miami’s bench outscored Dallas’ 27-17, and J.J. Barea, the Cinderella story from the Mavs’ first three series, finished the night with just 2 points on a measly 1-8 shooting night.
The Heat had the home crowd on their feet cheering from the beginning, and never let that much-appreciated morale booster go. The three-point shooting for the Mavericks, the same shooting that made the Lakers look old and past their prime, never came to materialize in game one, going 9-22 from the arc as Miami’s perimeter defense shadowed the long-range daggers that Dallas rode through the first three rounds on.
Dirk Nowitzki had 27 points for Dallas, tearing a tendon in the middle finger of his non-shooting hand.
James continued his fourth-quarter dominance with a late-game dunk that sent the crowd into a frenzy. That dunk, along with a late three from Wade, made Dallas’ hopes for the victory bleak.
Dallas seemed to have no answers for any of the “big three,” but it was Miami’s defense, the attribute that has carried them to these Finals, that showed big in game one. That turn-around jumper that Nowitzki dominated with so many times against the Lakers and Thunder, was consistently met with a double-team: and adjustment that neither team could produce, Miami did.
That defense come up big in the second half especially. The Mavericks had 51 points two minutes into the second half, but only managed 33 during the remainder of the game.
Despite this, the game was closer statistically than it seemed. Miami finished the game shooting .388% from the field, as Dallas finished with 37.3 percent on the night.
The aspect of the game that made the difference was the hustle and tenacity that the Heat showed all the way up to the buzzer when the clock showed zeros.
The Heat is 3-0 in Game 2’s this postseason. During those games, James has averaged 31 points, while Nowitzki is averaging 28.6 in Game 2’s as the Mavericks have gone 2-1. In the 2006 NBA Finals, these two teams were in opposite positions, and that time the winner of Game 1 won game two, only to lose the next four, that was Dallas.
In Game 2 this time around, the home crowd will again be pumped up, perhaps even more so than in game one, which will make it harder for Dallas to take away home-court advantage.
The odds makers have the Miami Heat as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 186.
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Matt’s Free Prediction: Miami – Look for Game 2 to have the same outcome as Tuesday night, and Dirk’s torn tendon won’t help Dallas’ attempt to even the series at one a piece Miami’s “big three” will keep dominating on both ends of the courts, while maybe not shutting down Dallas, but holding them again under 90 points. This will easily propel Miami to a 2-0 series lead.
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Dallas Mavericks Betting Trends:
Dallas is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Dallas is 16-3-1 ATS in its last 20 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami Heat Betting Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 12 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games at home
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
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