Kurt Busch 2010 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Kurt Busch 2009 Stats

Kurt Busch 2009 Recap & Review

Coming off his worst points season since (18th) his rookie campaign (27th in 2001), Kurt Busch began 2009 on a mission. He started by finishing 10th at Daytona, then served notice his Penske team had done its homework by winning in Atlanta three weeks later. That started a 15-race run in which he would finish inside the top 15 11 times, including top-5 finishes at Phoenix, Dover, Loudon and Daytona. By the time August came around, he had enough of a cushion to make the Chase despite two wrecks in the final four races of the regular season.

But just as the playoffs were about to begin, Busch’s No.2 team was thrown a curveball. At Richmond in September, crew chief Pat Tryson announced he’d be leaving at season’s end, a pending shakeup that usually leads to an automatic downturn in performance.

The departure did cause an initial wave of anger, but the driver quickly rose to the challenge. Despite the fact Tryson wasn’t allowed in the Penske Racing shop more than once a week, the team put together a strong title bid, eventually falling just short in fourth place, 206 points behind Jimmie Johnson. He earned seven top-10 finishes, including a win at Texas and a fourth in the season finale at Homestead. If not for a costly wreck in the final two laps at Talladega, he would have ended the year second in the standings.

Looking back on the year as a whole, Busch’s consistency matched 2004, the year he won his lone Cup championship. He had 10 top 5s and 21 top 10s in each season, and the two wins in ’09 were just one shy of his ’04 total.

Kurt Busch 2010 Preview & Prediction

He’s baaack! Kurt Busch served a reminder in 2009 of exactly why he’s a Cup champion after practically falling off the map the year before. Penske Racing showed real signs of a turnaround as an organization in 2009, as Busch’s charge up to fourth in the standings was the highest of any non-Hendrick team on the circuit. With two wins putting an exclamation point on a season that brought him back towards title contention, he improved by 14 spots in the points over the previous season, happily earning a place at the season-ending banquet in Las Vegas.

It was an important achievement for Busch, who loves his hometown and spent the fall planning all sorts of special events surrounding banquet week. But to stand up on stage for a second straight year — something he’s not done since joining Penske in 2006 — he will have to adapt to major changes.

Crew chief Pat Tryson, who guided Busch to two Chase appearances in three years, left the team after the season for Michael Waltrip Racing. In his place, the organization hired Steve Addington, who guided Kurt’s brother Kyle to 12 wins in just under two seasons on the job. The hiring did not come until mid December, meaning that a sizable portion of time preparing cars for 2010 was lost.

But perhaps the most important step lies in Addington figuring out how to talk to Busch. Tryson, known for his patience, takes with him the rare ability to work with a driver who can be both temperamental and high-maintenance behind the wheel. In the past, Busch’s radio tirades have gotten so out of hand that Roger Penske himself has needed to jump on the channel in order to calm his driver. Addington has already shown the aptitude for dealing with one volatile Busch brother, and the ability to keep Kurt’s temper in check will be critical.

Speaking of temperamental, Busch adds a new teammate in 2010 in Brad Keselowski, who’s not afraid to ruffle some feathers. The two made contact at Talladega last fall, causing a multi-car wreck that also eliminated any hope for Busch to challenge Jimmie Johnson. How the duo mesh could have an effect on Busch’s long-term future with Penske, as rumors abound that his contract is up after the 2010 season.

There also are some equipment concerns; while Penske isn’t underfunded, its manufacturer, Dodge, lags behind the top-level support of Ford, Chevy and Toyota. Penske will now be the only factory-backed team running Chargers, and while this gives the team exclusive use of resources (and, for the time being, tire-test dates), it will be forced to go it alone if it falls behind. Questions also remain about the manufacturer’s long-term financial commitment to the sport, causing another unwanted distraction for a team that already has its share.

One certainty with Busch is that he won’t back down from any type of adversity. The key is whether he’ll handle it with grace and maturity, or if he’ll lose his composure and resort to overaggressive driving or less-than-stellar communication with his crew. If it’s the former, he’s got a shot at a title. If it’s the latter, he’ll limp home in the back half of the Chase pack.

Kurt Busch 2010 Predictions

We predict that Kurt Busch will finish 10th in the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

Kurt Busch Betting & Odds

Kurt Busch NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Odds: +1500

Kurt Busch Betting Trends & Situations

• after finishing 6th to 10th, average finish is 14.7
• when racing in February, average finish is 16.1

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