Reds vs Braves | Prediction & Pick – MLB Pick – July 23, 2011

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Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves Pick

A team eyeing next year, and a team well in the race for their division’s pennent will clash on Saturday night with the Atlanta Braves will be in Cincinnati for the second game of a three-game series against the Reds.

Date/Time: Saturday, July 23, 4:10 P.M. ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park, in Cincinnati, Ohio
Broadcast: FOX

Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves Betting Lines

Money Line: Reds -125, Braves +105
Spread: Reds -1.5
Over/Under: 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are riding high this year, and have been surprising everyone ever since opening day with their relentless effort and spectacular pitching. Now they will look to finish the season strong in the second half, as they continue to chase the Philadelphia Phillies, in the National League East.

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The Braves will be dueling against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday for the second of three games in Ohio.

The Reds, who are in fourth place in the NL Central, have been so close to becoming the team that they expect themselves to be.

The are ranked 6th in runs, tenth in batting average, and first baseman Joey Votto has been lighting it up all year.

Votto is batting .318 with 58 RBIs this year, and is the leader of this team, who is trying so hard to live up to the buzz that was swirling around his team during the offseason.

The problem for Votto is that he doesn’t have any backup from his team. The team’s pitching staff is ranked 22nd in ERA so far this year, and the pitcher that will start on the mound on Saturday is likely not going to help improve that number.

Right-hander Homer Bailey (4-4) is in his fourth year in the majors, and although he is getting better as the years go on, the 25-year-old is not the player he should be at this point. The good news for Bailey is Atlanta isn’t a very punishing offensive team, so he should fair better against them then he has against other opponents.

Pitching for Atlanta will be right-hander Derek Lowe (6-7), who, so far, seems to be well over the hill of his major league career. Lowe has an ERA on 4.37 on the season, but does seems to fair better on the road than he does in front of his home fans.

Lowe was atrocious against his single start against Cincinnati this year. In the 7-6 victory, he was taken out in the fourth inning after giving up five runs to the Reds on five hits. But that was in Atlanta, where he has struggled all year.

These two teams have a lot of the same problems, but one major difference. The difference is that Atlanta has overcome their problems, and Cincinnati has let their problems destroy them.

The odds makers have the Cincinnati Reds as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.5.

Matt’s Free Prediction: Atlanta– The Braves are flat out the better team of the two, and are playing with a vengeance at the moment. It will no doubt be a high-scoring game, but the victory will be for Atlanta.

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 13 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

• Atlanta is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing Cincinnati