Cardinals vs Phillies | Preview, Odds, Free Pick

St. Louis Cardinals (18-9) at Philadelphia Phillies (15-11)
7:05 PM ET on ESPN
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Starting Pitchers
STL: B. Penny (3-1, 1.56)
PHI: K. Kendrick (0-1, 7.61)

The NL leading St. Louis Cardinals will look take a two game advantage as they square off against Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday in game three of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

The Cards broke a 1-1 deadlock scoring five runs in the seventh to shut down the Phillies 6-3 in game one on Monday. The Philies evened the series in game two when Carlos Ruiz hit a walk off solo home run in the 10th inning, as the Phillies edged out St. Luis 2-1 Tuesday night after another nutty fan ran onto the field at Citizens Bank Park. On Monday night, a 17-year old teenager was tasered in the outfield after eluding security for about 30 seconds. The second man gave himself up without incident, and was booed by the sellout crowd.

St. Louis will turn to the service of veteran right-hander Brad Penny. The 31-year old even looked good in his first losing start of the year on Friday against the Reds. He pitched six innings, allowing three earned runs on eight hits and five walks, striking out three. Penny gave up as many earned runs Friday as he had in his previous four starts combined.  Penny is 9-4 with a 3.48 ERA in his career against the Phillies.

The Phillies will counter with righty Kyle Kendrick. Drafted by Philadelphia in 2007, Kendrick made just two starts and appeared in nine games in 2009 with a 3.42 ERA. The 25-year old is on thin ice and the Phillies’ coaching staff has gone on record as considering other options for Kendrick’s spot in the rotation. Kendrick has lasted more than five innings just once in five tries this season and has surrendered five home runs in his last 10 innings pitched. His 7.61 ERA is second worst in the majors among qualified starters. In fact, take away his eight shutout innings at Atlanta on April 20, and he has an 11.49 ERA in four starts.  Kendrick is 3-0 lifetime against the Cardinals with an ERA of 2.25.

Odds makers have St. Louis as –1-½ – favorites with a run total of 10.

Phillies slugger Ryan Howard is 0-for-7 in the in two games against the Cardinals while right fielder Jayson Werth has reached safely in all 26 games this season. St. Louis has loaded the bases but stranded a total of 18 so far in the series.

I expect the Cardinals to regain the series lead taking game three as they tattoo Kendrick for six runs in the first five innings, while staying UNDER the total.

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St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

  • St. Louis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis’s last 11 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 5 games on the road
  • St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

  • Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 16 games at home
  • Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis

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