Braves vs Reds | Prediction & Pick – MLB Pick – July 24, 2011

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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday July 24 – 8:05PM (ESPN)

Pitching Probables: Brandon Beachy vs. Dontrelle Willis

Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Money Line: Atlanta Braves -115, Cincinnati Reds -105
Over/Under: 9

The Atlanta Braves had won three of four against Cincinnati this season before getting whacked last night 11-2.  It was another poor performance from Derek Lowe, who it might be time to stick a fork in.  Tonight’s starter, Brandon Beachy, has shown a lot of promise this year, missing a lot of bats, but really struggled his last time out.  To be fair it was a trip to Colorado and he wouldn’t have been the first pitcher who couldn’t find his stuff in the this air of Coors Field.  The Braves have been playing well on the whole keeping pace with the first place Phillies.  Even with the inexperienced Beachy on the hill they have the advantage on the mound tonight, provided he can keep the ball in the yard against the potent Reds attack.

That advantage is because the Reds are dipping deep into the past by giving Dontrelle Wills a chance to prove he is a major leaguer once again.  He has made two starts since being called up by the Reds and surprisingly he has not been horrible, giving the Reds a reasonable chance to win both games.  They might have if they had scored more than a total of 3 runs in those contests, which is uncharacteristic for this club that is 6th in the league in scoring and 9th in homers.  Last night they exploded for 11 runs which is the kind of outburst Willis will need to continue the Reds winning ways.  This team can’t afford to lose series with three teams ahead of them in the very competitive NL Central.

The odds makers have the Atlanta Braves as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.

Prediction:  I am not convinced that Willis has it in him to pitch a team to victory without a huge amount of support.  He won’t get it tonight during this prime time contest.

Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves – 7, Cincinnati Reds – 5

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Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games
• Atlanta is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games on the road
• Atlanta is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games at home
• Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Cincinnati is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Atlanta