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Atlanta Braves (82-59) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (90-48)
Wednesday September 7 – 7:05PM (ESPN)
Pitching Probables: Brandon Beachy vs Roy Oswalt
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies -135 / Atlanta Braves +115
Over/Under: 8
If the Atlanta Braves have any hope of threatening the Phillies, especially in the playoffs, they need to start winning some games against their rivals. They have lost the first two of this series and in their last three games they have been outscored 29-4…Ouch. Starter Brandon Beachy is enjoying a fine rookie season but has had no luck against the Phillies in his short career. The Braves have lost all five of his starts against them including three this season. To his credit he hasn’t pitched poorly, only once have they given him more than 4 runs of support. The Braves need a big performance from Beachy tonight to break the losing streak and regain some confidence. Making the playoffs is pretty much assured at this point but if they want to win it all they will likely have to beat Philly in the NLCS. Right now that looks like a pretty lopsided matchup for the Phillies.
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The Philadelphia Phillies do not appear to be slowing down as the season is in its final month. They have won 7 of their last 10 including the first two of this series against Atlanta. Starter Roy Oswalt has been up and down since returning from injury and it is amazing to think that he might not even be in the rotation come the playoffs (Worley is essentially unbeatable so it could play out that way). Since joining the Phillies he is 2-0 against Atlanta (1-0 this season) and this is a perfect spot to show that he is ready to join the rest of the aces on the staff. While pitching has been superb all season long it looks like the bath may be coming along. They may not be mashing like years past but they are now in the top 10 (8th) in runs scored on the season and have been getting the job done at the plate even with catalyst Jimmy Rollins on the DL. Look out!
The odds makers have the Philadelphia Phillies as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.
Prediction: I like a playoff style, low scoring affair for this one. The best value you can get with the Phillies right now is when Oswalt starts but that doesn’t mean I am going to shy away.
Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies – 4, Atlanta Braves – 3
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