Boston vs New York | Prediction & Pick

vs.

Boston Red Sox (17-20) vs. New York Yankees (20-15)
Friday, May 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST on MLB Network

Spread: New York Yankees -1.5
Money Line: Red Sox -105 / Yankees -110
Over/Under: 9.5

Pitching Probables: Clay Buchholz vs Bartolo Colon

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There is nothing like a weekend series between the Red Sox and Yankees, whether it is in Boston or the Bronx.  Even though Boston is failing to live up to pre-season expectations they enter the weekend just three wins behind their most reviled rival.  Maybe a visit to the Bronx is just what this team needs to get some key players performing better.  One of the players that needs to improve is tonight’s starter Clay Buchholz.  Last year he challenged for the league ERA title but this year he has looked more like a player that has peaked rather than one expected to dominate for the Sox over the next decade.  Things are improving of late but he has yet to pitch a full seven innings in any start this year.  It is early in the season still but it makes me nervous to back Boston unless I feel like they are going to get a winning performance from a starter as their pen and especially lineup are unreliable right now.

Did I read correctly that the Yankees hadn’t lost a home series to the Royals since the late 90’s?  I don’t know what is more surprising about that streak, that it existed at all or that it came to an end.  Yankees enter the weekend having dropped to second place behind the surging Tampa Rays and have to be wondering how good their chances of winning are when C.C. Sabathia isn’t on the mound.  Tonight Bartolo Colon takes the hill and the burly righthander has been sharper than anybody could have expected this season.  This is mainly because he has been exhibiting terrific control with a 37-7 K:BB ratio, a level he never exhibited when he was in his prime.  This is very encouraging going forward as it appears he is content to pitch to contact and let his lineup provide the backup which is a good strategy for Yanks hurlers.  Colon took the hill against Boston earlier this season and was pretty effective which also makes the Yankees more attractive for tonight.

The odds makers have the New York Yankees as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.5.

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Prediction:  Yankees will reverse recent trend and get back to winning baseball behind Colon (I know) and a solid output from the lineup.

Score Prediction: New York – 6 / Boston – 4

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Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 7 games
• Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
• Boston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

New York Yankees Betting Trends:

• NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees’s last 10 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games when playing Boston
• NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston