2010 ALDS Rangers vs Rays Prediction

2010 ALDS Preview, Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays

The Major League Baseball playoffs are set to begin on Wednesday and the stage is set for as eight teams begin their quest for a shot at winning the 104th Fall Classic in early November. Here I look at the match ups in the American League and see how the teams stack up with one another in round one.

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ALDS: Tampa Bay Rays (96-66) vs. Texas Rangers (90-72) – This will be the series to watch in my opinion, and while the Rangers seem to have the offensive edge in this, Tampa Bay heads into an American League Division Series against the Texas Rangers with its bullpen hitting on all cylinders.
The Rays’ bullpen worked 32 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run, and in the last 17 games, has a 1.29 ERA for 55 2/3 innings.

The Rays have also dominated at Tropicana Field going 49-32, as well as winning 17 of its last 22 at home. They owned the Rangers during the regular season, posting victories in its last four overall against Texas, including all three of its home games.

This could prove critical for a Texas team that was below .500 this season and does not have home advantage in this series. Besides, the Rays did win a league-high 47 road games, nullifying any advantage the Rangers may have had or will have in Arlington.

Tampa Bay, the American League East champions, as of the final day of the season, enter the postseason 3rd in runs scored, but have just one regular (Carl Crawford at .307) hitting over .300; as a team they batted only .247 (27th in baseball); and they boast no one with 30 homers.

With the absence of third baseman Evan Longoria who has been out with a strained left quad since Sept. 23, Carlos Pena needs to somehow become any semblance of the home run hitter he has been in the past, and with a little help from B.J. Upton, they could help energize the Rays’ offense.

Texas meanwhile finished its 2010 regular season campaign 1st in the league in batting average, 1st in hits, and 5th in runs. They will also get plenty of help as leading producer Josh Hamilton (.359 and 32 HR’s) returns to the line up in time for Game 1 on Wednesday.

However, I’m not sure how effective Hamilton, Vlad, Nelson Cruz and the rest of the Rangers big boppers will be against Tampa Bays’ ace pitching staff and bullpen, starting with CY Young southpaw David Price.

Price might have been the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch, but the Rays will need another starter other than Price to step up, as he can’t do it alone. Matt Garza could be that guy, if he can duplicate his solid performance in the 2008 postseason. You also can’t forget Rays’ closer Rafael Soriano who leads the AL with 45 saves.

The Rangers will try to their best to stymie the Tampa Bay lumber and have three go-to pitching aces in C.J. Wilson (3.35 ERA.), Tommy Hunter, and late season acquisition Cliff Lee (3.01 ERA).

Keeping the Rays off the bases will be key, as one of the other Rays’ strengths has to be its blinding speed. Tampa led the majors in stolen bases (172), sporting three players with at least 24 steals and two — Crawford and B.J. Upton — with 40-plus. Their base running is a big reason that the Rays scored the third-most runs in baseball this year.

Considering the Rays’ penchant for pilfering, the Rangers will have their hands full, as they are are 26th in catching base thieves. This may have been a big reason they brought in veteran catcher Bengie Molina, who despite his defensive reputation, has only caught 24 percent of base-stealers all year himself.

These could be tight games, though not necessarily low scoring as the Rays and Rangers combined for 71 runs in their six meetings this year.

I expect the Rangers to out-hit the Rays, but because of extra bases on the paths, I expect Tampa to out-score Texas. However, the Rays will need to get on the board sooner than they have through the early innings many nights. If they do, they may be able to overcome their offensive shortcomings.

Predictions: Tampa Bay wins in five.

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Game 1: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays Wed, Oct. 6 1:30 PM EST on TBS
Game 2: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays Thu, Oct. 7 2:30 PM EST on TBS
Game 3: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers Sat, Oct. 9 5:00 PM EST on TBS
Game 4*: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers Sun, Oct. 10 TBD EST on TBS
Game 5*: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays Tue, Oct. 12 TBD EST on TBS

* If necessary

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