Oregon Ducks 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Oregon 2008 Record: (10-3, 7-2)
Oregon 2008 Bowl: Holiday Bowl vs. Oklahoma State (W 42-31)
Oregon Coach: Chip Kelly (First year at Oregon, 0-0 overall)
Oregon Offensive Coordinator: Chip Kelly
Oregon Defensive Coordinator: Nick Aliotti
Oregon Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: LeGarrette Blount, RB, 1,002 yards
• Passing: Jeremiah Masoli, QB, 1,744 yards
• Receiving: Ed Dickson, TE, 508 yards
• Tackles: T.J. Ward, S, 101
• Sacks: Will Tukuafu, DE, 7.5
• Interceptions: Walter Thurmond III, CB, 55

Notable Oregon Returning Players: OT C.E. Kaiser, WR Jeff Maehl, LB Casey Matthews, LB Spencer Paysinger, G Bo Thran

Oregon Key Losses: LB Jerome Boyd, CB Jairus Byrd, S Patrick Chung, DT Ra’Shon Harris, RB Jeremiah Johnson, G Mark Lewis, DT Cole Linehan, DE Nick Reed, QB Justin Roper, WR Terence Scott, OT Fenuki Tupou, C Max Unger, WR Jaison Williams

The Ducks are riding high heading into 2009 coming off of a 10-3 season which ended with a shellacking of #13 Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl. Oregon’s 36-15 record over the past four years is 2 nd best in the conference behind USC! However, longtime head coach Mike Bellotti retired this past offseason and superstar offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is now the man in charge in Eugene. Kelly brought his version of the spread to Oregon two years ago and was a knee injury to star quarterback Dennis Dixon away from powering the Ducks all the way to the national title game in 2007! This fall, Kelly has to replace a ton of departed talent on both sides of the ball and must also learn to split his time in practice evenly between offense and defense. As Bellotti didn’t retire until after spring practice, there could be some issues in the transition process. On top of that, Oregon is being touted as a top 15 team nationally so Kelly will have to struggle with the pressure of expectations that he might not be able to live up to in his first season.

On offense there is a lot of work to do. Luckily, quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who took over the offense in early 2008 after transferring in just prior to camp opening, will once more call the shots after rushing for over 700 yards and passing for over 1,700 yards, producing a combined total of 23 touchdowns! The Ducks’ powerful offense averaged 42 points per game last fall thanks largely to their prowess on the ground and despite losing 1,200 yard rusher Jeremiah Johnson I expect another strong year as 1,000 yard rusher LeGarrette Blount will be the featured back. The biggest question this fall will be the offensive line, which only returns one starter! The Ducks have to replace two NFL draft picks and another two year starter on the line! After averaging an incredible 280 yards per game on the ground in 2008, I can’t imagine a completely new O-Line coming together quickly enough to allow the Ducks to approach that much production. At receiver, the top options will be senior tight end Ed Dickson and junior receiver Jeff Maehl.

However, Masoli is a run-first quarterback and if he is forced to throw more often than last season then Oregon could struggle. With the loss of a 1,200 yard rusher, two of the top four receivers and four starters on the offensive line, I will be shocked if Oregon comes close to last year’s production. However, even if the Ducks score two touchdowns less per game, they’re still going to average nearly 30 points per game so this should still be a productive unit.

Defensively, Oregon struggled through the air last fall, allowing 270 yards per game! However, I expect that to improve this season for one major reason: The Ducks have to retool their defensive line and will be more vulnerable to the run. Only senior Will Tukafu is back from last year’s starters and he’s a good one, having made 59 tackles and 7.5 sacks in 2008. However, two of their departed starters were taken in the NFL draft, one of whom led the Pac Ten in sacks! The linebackers appear to be fairly solid, led by junior Spencer Paysinger, who made 95 stops last season. I expect a solid performance from the linebacking corps once more but playing behind a new defensive line could make them more exposed to the run after fielding the league’s second best rush defense in 2008.

The secondary returns two starters but the two departed starters were both 1 st team All-Pac Ten selections and 2 nd round NFL draft picks! Seniors TJ Ward and Walter Thurmond are excellent players in their own right as Ward led the team in tackles with 101 and Thurmond led the team with 5 picks. Junior Talmadge Jackson was also solid last season as the nickel back and should be a productive starter at corner opposite Thurmond. With so much talent, I think last year’s pass defense underachieved and the Ducks should be better through the air this year. However, Oregon could take a step back this fall thanks to their defensive line issues and I don’t expect this to be any better than an average defense.

The schedule is a decidedly mixed bag. The non-conference portion is very interesting as Oregon opens up at Boise State on the season’s opening Thursday night. That won’t be an easy place to leave with a win. After that, they host Purdue and Utah, so all three of their non-conference games won’t be pushovers. The conference schedule features five home games and all of the contenders for the title have to come to the inferno of noise that is Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks have a 20-5 record the past four seasons. That’s a big advantage for the Ducks and they couldn’t ask for a much friendlier Pac Ten run.

Overall, there are major questions about both lines on top of some major talent drain as six of Oregon’s departed starters were picked in the NFL draft. Even worse, Kelly will be feeling his way through his first season as the head coach and changing the enormously successful dynamic of the offense with a new coordinator could be troublesome. Furthermore, I don’t think Masoli is much of a passing quarterback and if the Ducks struggle on the ground, I don’t think he’ll win them many games. Honestly, looking at the Ducks I don’t see a top 15 team, I see a team that is a borderline top 25 team with a lot of questions at key positions. I expect a solid but unspectacular performance on both sides of the ball in what will be a quasi-rebuilding year in Eugene. Expect the Ducks to win 7 or 8 games in the regular season and play in their 5th consecutive bowl game but they won’t compete for the conference title.

Oregon Big Games: Sept. 3rd @ Boise St, Sept. 26th vs. Cal, Oct. 10th @ UCLA, Oct. 31st vs. USC, Nov. 21st @ Arizona, Dec. 3rd vs. Oregon St

Oregon’s Strength:

Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli came on very strong at the end of the 2008 campaign and pretty much turned a questionable quarterback situation into the team’s biggest strength. On the year Masoli threw for 1,744 yards and 13 touchdowns and rushed for another 718 yards and ten trips to the end zone. Running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount both eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last season and Blount is back to help keep the Ducks offense moving. Finding some consistent receivers besides tight end Ed Dickson would help make the offense even better. Terence Scott and Jaison Williams are gone and that leaves a big hole that Jeff Maehl cannot fill on his own.

Oregon’s Weakness:

Somehow the Oregon defense ranked last in the conference and 111 th in the nation in pass defense, and that was with corner Jairus Byrd and rover Patrick Chung. Those two will be playing on Sundays this year. It is not like Walter Thurmond III and T.J. Ward are bad players who brought down the secondary. Thurmond and Ward, even without Byrd and Chung, should form a solid secondary, but the group was torched last year and there is little reason to think it will get any better this time around. And considering the opposing quarterback rarely had time to throw the ball, it makes the play of the secondary even more baffling. As long as Will Tukuafu continues to get into the backfield, the Ducks will continue to tally quite a few sacks. Linebackers Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger are two of the five returning starters and those two should help keep things relatively under control and keep the Oregon defense at least half way decent.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Ducks:

No team in the Pac-10 returns fewer starters than Oregon. The Ducks have some solid players to build around, but both lines are in dire need of some rebuilding. Masoli and Blount need room to operate and that might not be easy without center Max Unger and tackle Fenuki Tupou. The line on the other side of the ball is equally decimated and Coach Kelly needs to find some new bodies to clog the line or the Ducks defense will be worse than they were last year…and that was pretty bad.

2008 Oregon Ducks Team Stats:

• Rushing Offense: 280.08 (2nd in nation, 1st in conference)
• Passing Offense: 204.77 (67, 5)
• Total Offense: 484.85 (7, 1)
• Scoring Offense: 41.92 (7, 1)
• Rushing Defense: 119.38 (23, 2)
• Pass Defense: 270.23 (111, 10)
• Total Defense: 389.62 (82, 8 )
• Scoring Defense: 28.23 (78, 7)
• Turnover Margin: .38 (35, 5)
• Sacks: 2.92 (8, 2)
• Sacks Allowed: 1.54 (36, 2)

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