North Texas Mean Green 2009 Football Betting Preview

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North Texas 2008 Record: (1-11, 0-7)
North Texas 2008 Bowl: none
North Texas Coach: Todd Dodge (3-21 at North Texas, 3-21 overall)
North Texas Offensive Coordinator: Todd Ford
North Texas Defensive Coordinator: Gary DeLoach
North Texas Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Cam Montgomery, RB, 928 yards
• Passing: Nathan Tune, QB, 55 yards
• Receiving: Alex Lott, WR, 201 yards
• Tackles: Tobe Nwigwe, LB, 111
• Sacks: Eddrick Gilmore, DE, 3.0
• Interceptions: Tobe Nwigwe, LB, 3

Notable North Texas Returning Players: DE Brandon Akpunku, CB Antoine Bush, S DaWaylon Cook, G Coleman Feeley, OT Victor Gill, CB Royce Hill, G Gabe Hollivay, C J.J. Johnson, WR Sam Roberson, LB Craig Robertson, OT Esteban Santiago, S Darien Williams

North Texas Key Losses: WR Sam Dibrell, WR Casey Fitzgerald, WR Brock Stickler, QB Giovanni Vizza

Entering last season, I was a fan of the Mean Green, expecting them to field a competitive team in the Sun Belt in head coach Todd Dodge’s second season. Instead, they fielded the worst defense in the nation (47.5 points per game allowed!) and finished 1-11 with their only win coming against lowly WKU. However, I have a feeling that things will turn around this year. Dodge was one of the elite high school coaches in the state of Texas three years ago and I think it has taken him a little while to adjust to the higher pace of college football. North Texas has a lot of talent on hand and could be a surprise team this fall.

On offense, one of the factors in only producing 20 points per game was the redshirting of Todd’s son Riley, who was one of the country’s top 10 prep quarterbacks and decommited from Texas to play for his father. Riley was injured in the third game but showed some flashes early in the season with his mobility. Another reason that I like the younger Dodge’s chances to perform well this fall is the return of the entire offensive line and the team’s leading rusher, senior Cam Montgomery, who ran for over 900 yards and 9 touchdowns last year. Expect the Mean Green to improve upon their 127 yards per game on the ground last year. In fact, my only concern is at receiver, where there is not very much experience returning. If Dodge can find any targets to catch his passes to provide some balance for what should be a solid running game, North Texas could field one of the conference’s toughest offenses.

On defense, the country’s worst unit returns most of their starters and a lot of hard earned experience. The Mean Green started at least five freshmen during last year and they should all improve drastically after being thrown into the proverbial fire. Up front, senior Edrick Gilmore led the team with 3 sacks and will lead an improved line but considering how poor they were last season the big question isn’t whether they’re better but by how much. However, one of the best collections of linebackers in the league plays right behind them, so the Mean Green should still be decent against the run. Seniors Tobe Nwigwe (111 tackles) and Kylie Hill (77 tackles at strong safety) and junior Craig Roberston (94 tackles) are the team’s three leading tacklers from 2008 and should be a very mobile set of linebackers. The secondary also returns intact and three starters were freshmen last year. Sophomore Antoine Bush appears to be the leader of a young group which will only get better. North Texas’ defense has its strengths and question marks but I think that it will turn out to be one of the conference’s better defenses, especially if the new starters on the defensive line play to their potential. They certainly will not allow more than 40 points per game for the 3 rd consecutive season.

The schedule is quite reasonable. The Mean Green has six home games for the first time in recent memory and only faces off against one BCS conference opponent. Furthermore, they don’t face any back to back road games all year long! Todd Dodge couldn’t hope for a better slate to turn this team around. In short, the Mean Green turned the ball over seventeen times more than they forced their opponents to, couldn’t stop anyone on defense and had trouble finding good quarterback play last fall. I believe that they’ll improve by leaps and bounds with Riley Dodge at quarterback and a year of experience under their still-young defense’s belt. I think North Texas could see the positive side of the turnover margin this year with Riley Dodge under center and end up eligible for the postseason, though I don’t think that this is their year to knock the Trojans off of the top of the conference standings.

North Texas Big Games: Oct. 26th vs. MTSU, Oct. 17th vs. FAU, Oct. 24th @ Troy, Nov. 7 vs. UL-Monroe, Nov. 28th @ Arkansas State

North Texas’s Strength:

One type of player that fits into Coach Dodge’s high flying system is his son. Riley Dodge will take over the quarterback duties from Giovanni Vizza. Vizza had a solid 2007 campaign, but 2008 did not go so well and he would have likely lost out on the starting job to the younger Dodge anyway. Dodge, a redshirt freshman, could have played at a more prominent program than UNT, but playing for his father was too much to turn down. Coach Dodge likes to throw and throw often and the younger Dodge has the potential to put up huge numbers. However, most of the experienced wide receivers are now gone, most notably Casey Fitzgerald and Brock Stickler, and players like Sam Roberson, Jamaal Jackson, Tyler Stradford and Michael Outlaw need to step up and emerge as consistent receivers. Returning the entire offensive line is nice, but the unit was not very good last year. They should be better with a year of experience and that is good news for both Dodge’s and running back Cam Montgomery. Montgomery rushed for 928 yards and nine touchdowns last year and he can make the offense halfway decent while the new receivers work with their new quarterback.

North Texas’s Weakness:

The defense could not stop anybody last year and there is little reason to believe that anything will change in 2009. The coaching staff has made a few moves to try and add some speed to the unit, most notably moving Brandon Akpunku from linebacker to defensive end. And it is in the front four where UNT needs the most help. Eddrick Gilmore will occasionally get into the backfield and if Akpunku can successfully do the same, the entire defense will be much improved. The linebackers at least have some experience. Tobe Nwige is the star of the unit and Kylie Hill and Craig Robertson are at least upperclassmen. The secondary, on the other hand, is extremely young and it is quite likely that three of the four players starting in the secondary will be sophomores.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Mean Green:

Even just two years into the Coach Dodge regime, there is no way this team should rank last in the conference in scoring offense. This is a team that is supposed to put up big numbers and they ranked fourth in passing offense and fifth in total offense and managed to score a mere 20 points per game. It is actually quite amazing that they won one game in 2008. Ironically, that was a high scoring shootout that they won and those are exactly the type of games this time needs to play in if they want to win.

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