Missouri Tigers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Missouri 2008 Record: (10-4, 5-3)
Missouri 2008 Bowl: Alamo Bowl vs. Northwestern (W 30-23)
Missouri Coach: Gary Pinkel (59-41 at Missouri, 132-78-3 overall)
Missouri Offensive Coordinator: David Yost
Missouri Defensive Coordinator: Dave Steckel
Missouri Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Derrick Washington, RB, 1,036 yards
• Passing: Blaine Gabbert, QB, 43 yards
• Receiving: Jared Perry, WR, 567 yards
• Tackles: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, 155
• Sacks: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, 5.0
• Interceptions: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, 3

Other Key Returnees for Mizzou: WR Danario Alexander, C Tim Barnes, DT Jaron Baston, OT Elvis Fisher, CB Carl Gettis, S Del Howard, S Kenji Jackson, LB Luke Lambert, S Hardy Ricks, DE Jacquies Smith

Missouri Key Losses: CB Castine Bridges, OT Colin Brown, DE Tommy Chavis, LB Brock Christopher, TE Chase Coffman, QB Chase Daniel, S Justin Garrett, DT Evander Hood, WR Jeremy Maclin, S William Moore, WR Tommy Saunders, DE Stryker Sulak, CB Tremane Vaughns, K Jeff Wolfert

2008 capped off a massively successful run for the Tigers under the guidance of former star quarterback Chase Daniels. A bowl win propelled the Tigers to a 10-4 year and Daniels’ final three seasons at the helm culminated with a 30-11 record! The Tigers are the two-time defending Big XII North Champions but they have the lowest number of returning starters in the entire conference and must replace a four year starting quarterback’s enormous production. Can Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel effectively reload in his 9 th season or will Missouri find themselves in rebuilding mode?

The offense was extremely powerful the past two seasons and the Tigers averaged over 42 points per game last fall! Unfortunately, all of this production centered on Daniels and there will be some serious growing pains without him. However, sophomore Blaine Gabbert was one of the country’s highest rated recruits two years ago and is expected to take over. Gabbert is very talented but he will also have to deal with developing a rapport with a largely inexperienced group of receivers after last season’s top three targets have moved on. Senior Jared Perry is the top returnee after catching 41 passes for 567 yards and 4 touchdowns and he will likely be Gabbert’s top target. However, the top three receivers last fall combined for 264 catches, 3080 yards and 30 touchdown catches! That means that there is an enormous amount of production that has been lost.

The good news is that Missouri should still be effective offensively thanks to a stellar offensive line, which returns three starters. Senior guard Kurtis Gregory was a 2nd team All-Big XII selection and sophomore tackle Elvis Fisher was a 1st team Freshman All-American, so there should be plenty of protection for Gabbert. The running game should also be solid as junior tailback Derrick Washington returns after rushing for over 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. While he’ll have to be a much larger focus after performing primarily as a change of pace to Daniels’ air raid attack last year, Washington should be capable of racking up some yards. Overall, Missouri’s offense won’t be nearly as productive as last season, especially through the air, but I expect Gabbert to have the passing game going during the second half of the year. Expect some growing pains early but the pieces are in place for a solid offensive attack by November.

Defensively, I have a ton of concerns. After getting murdered through the air last season for a conference-worst 287 yards per game, the Tigers have to rebuild their secondary practically from scratch. Junior cornerback Carl Gettis is the only returning starter and he is a good one, having made 78 tackles last season. There is some experience returning in senior safety Hardy Ricks, who started two seasons ago, and sophomore Kenji Jackson, who was solid last season in a nickel role. However, I’m concerned how well this unit will perform after losing star safety William Moore to the NFL and while I don’t expect the Tigers to have the conference’s worst pass defense once more, I also don’t expect them to break out of the bottom tier either.

The news isn’t much better up front. The front seven lost three NFL draft picks, including both defensive tackles. The Tigers had a solid run defense in 2008 but the loss of two NFL tackles, especially 1 st round pick Ziggy Hood who is an absolute load, will severely hamper their ability to stop the run. Senior linebacker Sean Witherspoon was a 2nd team All-American after leading the team in tackles (155), tackles for loss (13.5), passes defended (7) and interceptions (3) while finishing second in sacks with five on the year! However, Witherspoon’s numbers should suffer as well without the big bodies in front of him occupying space and blockers. Missouri could instead start three sophomores this year on the line! While Witherspoon is definitely one of the best defensive players in the Big XII, I think that the Tigers are going to take a step back in run defense and I expect Missouri to field one of the more porous defenses in the Pinkel era.

The schedule doesn’t cut the Tigers any breaks either. Illinois’ powerful passing attack awaits them on opening day after scoring 76 points in their last two meetings and Mizzou has to travel cross-country to play a very dangerous Nevada team before the end of September! The Tigers also draw Oklahoma State, Texas and Baylor from the South and will be lucky to win one of those games. Finally, they continue to play archrival Kansas at a neutral site so there will be no home field advantage against the more talented Jayhawks.

Overall, Missouri has been massively successful in the past two seasons by outscoring their opponents. In their two games with Illinois, the average score was 46-38! However, I don’t expect the Tigers to be able to score at will this season and their defense, which only really struggled against elite offenses, also appears depleted. Keep in mind that this year’s team lost six NFL draft picks from 2008 on top of their all-time leading passer. Simply put, Missouri’s defense will have trouble keeping opponents off the field because of a weakened run defense and their offense is no longer a juggernaut whenever it gets out there. That is not a formula for success. I expect Missouri to take a step back this season and miss a bowl game for the first time in five years.

Missouri Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Illinois (St. Louis), Oct. 8th vs. Nebraska, Oct. 17th @ Ok St, Oct. 31st @ Colorado, Nov. 14th @ KSU, Nov. 28th vs. Kansas (Kansas City)

Missouri’s Strength:

The lone returning skill player who saw significant playing time last year is running back Derrick Washington. With a decent crop of linemen returning, led by center Tim Barnes and left tackle Elvis Fisher, Washington should have plenty of room to run. And there may be a little more running going on this year than one would expect out of the Missouri offense. New offensive coordinator Dave Yost plans to do a little more power running than before and that should play into the Tigers strength this year. Despite the loss of receivers Maclin and Tommy Saunders and tight end Chase Coffman, there are a few relatively experienced receivers ready to step up. Danario Alexander and Jared Perry are capable playmakers and there are youngsters like Wes Kemp and Jerrell Jackson who hope to be the next Maclin.

Mizzou’s Weakness:

But exactly who is going to get them the ball? Daniel is gone and so is his backup Chase Patton. That leaves sophomore Blaine Gabbert as the only option. If he struggles, Missouri will have to look to a couple incoming freshmen and that would most likely end in disaster. That means it is very important that Gabbert is ready to go when the games start to matter. As bad as the quarterback situation could be, the defense is in worse shape. Only four starters return and the players that were lost were some very talented individuals who will be playing on Sundays this fall. And somehow the Tigers ranked 117 th in the nation in pass defense even with all those quality players. Something has to fundamentally change or this group could give up a ton of points in a hurry and not have the offense to keep up.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Tigers:

Gabbert is ready to succeed thanks to the talent around him, but the offense simply cannot be as good as it was last year. Even just losing Maclin would make the offense worse. But at least the unit should be decent and could even slow things down a little bit by giving Washington the ball more often. In the end it will come down to the defense and linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Luke Lambert will be thoroughly tested as both leaders and playmakers.

Missouri Betting Odds

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