Louisville Cardinals 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Louisville 2008 Record: (5-7, 1-6)
Louisville 2008 Bowl: none
Louisville Coach: Steve Kragthorpe (11-13 at Louisville, 40-35 overall)
Louisville Offensive Coordinator: Steve Kragthorpe
Louisville Defensive Coordinator: Brent Guy
Louisville Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Victor Anderson, RB, 1,047 yards
• Passing: Tyler Wolfe, QB, 14 yards
• Receiving: Doug Beaumont, WR 750 yards
• Tackles: Jon Dempsey, LB, 80
• Sacks: William Savoy, DE, 2.0
• Interceptions: Chris Campa, LB, 1; Johnny Patrick, CB, 1

Notable Louisville Returning Players: LB Antwon Canady, WR Josh Chichester, S Dan Covington, WR Trent Guy, LB Brandon Heath, WR Troy Pascley, DT L.D. Scott

Louisville Key Losses: RB Brock Bolin, LB James Bryant, S Bobby Buchanan, OT George Bussey, QB Hunter Cantwell, DT Adrian Grady, DE Earl Heyman, CB Woodny Turenne, C Eric Wood

I wouldn’t want to be Cardinals’ head coach Steve Kragthorpe right now. After taking over a massively successful program (41-9 record and a conference title in 4 seasons) from Bobby Petrino two years ago, he has managed to take a #10 preseason team led by a senior NFL–caliber quarterback and three NFL draft picks at receiver and lead it to a 6-6 record thanks to a defense which allowed over 31 points per game. He then followed that disaster up by starting 5-2 in 2008 only to lose to a terrible Syracuse team for the second consecutive season and plummet to a season-ending five game losing streak and a 5-7 final record. Needless to say, his seat is on fire right now. It is put up or shut up time at the ‘Ville for Kragthorpe and unfortunately he only has 11 starters back to make what could be his last stand.

On offense, Kragthorpe has the unenviable task of having to explain the transfer of Phil Simms’ highly touted son Matt during the spring leading up to an open quarterback battle in which he was favored to take over as a sophomore. Instead, there is a three way derby going on between three very green quarterbacks and it might not be resolved until the end of fall camp. At the other skill positions, there is much better news. Sophomore Victor Anderson is back at tailback after rushing for over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, earning him 2 nd team All-Big East honors as a freshman. The top five receivers are back as well, led by junior Doug Beaumont, who had 62 grabs last year. The offensive line loses two starters but both were NFL draft choices (1 st and 5 th round), so improvement will be tough to come by. In short, I’m not sure how a team led by a senior quarterback that featured two NFL draft choices on the offensive line and a 1,000 yard rusher in the backfield could have averaged only 24.5 points per game last season but that’s what happened. With a new quarterback and those NFL draftees gone, I can’t expect Louisville to do any better this season.

The defense has been a major issue since day one for Kragthorpe but it isn’t like he can claim that Petrino left him nothing upon arrival; Petrino’s last four seasons never yielded more than 23 points per game while Kragthorpe barely kept opponents under 30 last fall! Things aren’t likely to improve this year either as the entire defensive line has to be replaced. In fact the entire Cardinals’ defense brings back only two sacks from last season! The linebackers are led by senior Jon Dempsey, whose 80 tackles earned him 2 nd team All-Big East honors last fall. The secondary brings back two starters. Senior safety Daniel Covington had 66 tackles last fall and junior corner Johnny Patrick was 3 rd on the team with 50. However, the Cardinals’ secondary only returns a single interception! I will give them credit as they suffered a lot of injuries last season but this is still one of the conference’s worst secondaries. Overall, the Cardinals look like they’ll take a step back this year and I would be surprised if they didn’t allow more than 30 points per game.

The schedule is also unkind to the Cardinals. They have four conference road games, though two of their home games are on Friday nights against Pittsburgh and Rutgers. Louisville also has consecutive road games at rival Kentucky and recent BCS buster Utah in September before welcoming the Panthers to town. A match up with C-USA favorite Southern Mississippi could also be trouble in the early going. In short, the Cardinals have to somehow improve a minus twelve turnover margin despite starting a new quarterback behind a weakened O-Line while playing six road games and fielding a defense which only returns one sack and one pick from last year. The early schedule is also tough and a 1-3 start is a strong possibility, which will ratchet up the pressure on Kragthorpe until his seat becomes volcanic. I hate to say it but it looks like Kragthorpe’s tenure at Louisville could be over after this season as I can’t see the Cardinals winning more than four games this fall.

Louisville Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Kentucky, Oct. 2nd vs. Pittsburgh, Oct. 24th @ Cincinnati, Nov. 14th vs. Syracuse, Nov. 27th vs. Rutgers

Louisville’s Strength:

The offense did not have too much to be proud of last year, but Victor Anderson was one of the few exceptions. The 5-9 freshman came out of nowhere and rushed for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns. With a mess at the quarterback position, the Louisville offense will rely on Anderson to do a lot for this team. The skill positions are also set at wide receiver where Doug Beaumont returns after catching a team high 62 passes for 750 yards. Beaumont is a fine receiver and should be the leader of the unit once again, but there is potential in Josh Chichester if he can find a way to be consistent and Scott Long if he can stay healthy.

Louisville’s Weakness:

The defense was nothing special last year and that was with coordinator Ron English. English gave some life to an otherwise average group and now he is the head coach at Eastern Michigan. Making matters worse is that the front four is entirely gone and the entire unit will suffer if the line cannot get pressure in the opposition’s backfield. This is a team that ranked 106 th in the nation in sacks last year and that gave the rest of the conference all day to throw over the Cardinals defense. That will happen again if young defensive ends like sophomores Greg Scruggs and William Savoy cannot consistently get into the backfield.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cardinals:

In the end, it is always about the quarterbacks. Hunter Cantwell only had one year to show off his stuff and he was a disappointment. Now the job falls to a whole slew of signal callers. Justin Burke and Adam Froman are the likely candidates to earn the starting job this fall, but Zack Stoudt had a good spring and is not giving up on the fight. Coach Kragthorpe does not plan to name a starter until well into August, but the winner of the quarterback derby has to keep the interceptions down and find a way to get the ball into the hands of Louisville’s talented playmakers.

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