Idaho Vandals 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Idaho 2008 Record: (2-10, 1-7)
Idaho 2008 Bowl: none
Idaho Coach: Robb Akey (3-21 at Idaho, 3-21 overall)
Idaho Offensive Coordinator: Steve Axman
Idaho Defensive Coordinator: Mark Criner
Idaho Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Deonte’ Jackson, 696 yards
• Passing: Nathan Enderle, QB, 2,077 yards
• Receiving: Max Komar, WR, 298 yards
• Tackles: Virdell Larkins, S, 82
• Sacks: Faleaoga Faumui, DT, 2.0
• Interceptions: Isaac Butts, CB, 3

Notable Idaho Returning Players: TE Peter Bjorvik, WR Preston Davis, LB JoJo Dickson, G Mike Iupati, S Jeromy Jones, S Shiloh Keo, DE Aaron Lavarias, CB Kenneth Patten, LB Robert Siavii, OT Bryce Sinclair

Idaho Key Losses: LB Justin Allen, K Tino Amancio, G Kris Anderson, OT Billy Bates, P T.J. Conley, LB Jonathan Faraimo, C Adam Korby, DE Taylor Rust, DE Josh Shaw, TE Eddie Williams

It there is a team which embodies the proverbial ‘bottom of the barrel’, it has to be the Idaho Vandals. They haven’t won more than five games in a season since the turn of the century, they’ve won a conference-low 23 games in the nine years since, they’re on their 4 th head coach during that time period, they play in the smallest stadium in the country, and their ‘rival’, Boise State, has owned them worse than Ohio State has owned Michigan in recent years. Their closest loss to Boise in the last five seasons was by sixteen points! Last year, their average game was a 43-20 loss! However, hope is not completely lost as the Vandals return 13 starters and will hope to improve upon last year’s putrid 2-10 record.

Offensively, junior quarterback Nate Enderle will be relied upon to take the next step forward in his 3 rd year as the starter. Enderle threw for 2,077 yards and 20 touchdowns last season against 17 interceptions and saw his completion percentage jump from 44% to 54%. However, he is not mobile and will need a decent line blocking for him. This is a concern as the offensive line only returns two starters, though senior guard Mike Iupati was a 2 nd team All-WAC selection last year. I think that the line, which allowed 36 sacks last fall, has nowhere to go but up and that means that Enderle’s production should improve as well. Furthermore, last season’s top two rushers are back, led by junior Deonte Jackson, who paced the team with 700 yards and 3 touchdowns. Idaho will need an improved running attack this fall and I think they’ll get it. The biggest concern for me is at the receiver position, where sophomore Preston Davis shows the most promise after reeling in 27 passes (3 touchdowns) last year as a true freshman. If he doesn’t step into a starring role this fall, it seems unlikely that anyone on the Vandals will. Still, I have to think with a 3 rd year starter at quarterback and an improved running game that Idaho’s offensive production should improve moderately from last year’s 19.6 points per game average.

The Idaho defense was one of the country’s worst last fall, allowing a shockingly bad 42.8 points per game. The primary culprit was an ineffective rush defense which allowed 210 yards per game, though a turnover margin of minus fourteen didn’t help either. I’m not sure what’s worse; the completely new group at Hawai’i or the returning front seven at Idaho who had their tails handed to them last fall. Either way, the Vandals’ D-Line will be led by a pair of juniors, John Sataraka and Aaron Lavarious, who each notched 21 tackles and zero sacks last fall. After last year, one would have to think that they can only get better. At linebacker, the Vandals will be hit hard by the loss of their 2 nd and 3 rd leading tacklers, both of whom walked away from the team during the offseason. It isn’t a stretch to say that the Vandals will field the conference’s worst linebackers. Now, if you’ve made it this far into the Idaho preview looking for a glimmer of hope, I have one for you: The Vandal secondary. Three starters return to a solid unit which should definitely be improved from last year. Senior Virdell Larkins is the team’s leading returning tackler and junior cornerback Isaac Butts led the team in interceptions last fall with three. While I expect teams to have their way with the Vandals up front, Idaho should hold their own against the pass. Overall, I expect Idaho’s defense to get better but this team is still going to allow thirty-something points per game at a minimum and that just isn’t going to help them win many games.

The schedule makers also did the Vandals no favors, handing them four road games in their first 6 contests. While they only face one BCS conference opponent, the Vandals have a stretch in the second half of the season where they face Nevada, Louisiana Tech, Fresno State and rival Boise State in consecutive weeks. In short, Idaho might be stronger on offense this year but their defense is still going to be pretty terrible. I only picked them to win two games because they have a few home games against some of the weaker conference opponents. The Vandals have next to no chance to make a bowl game and I don’t expect them to win more than three games this season.

Idaho Big Games: Sept. 5th @ New Mexico State, Oct. 17th vs. Hawai’i, Oct. 31st vs. Louisiana Tech, Nov. 14th @ Boise State, Nov. 28th vs. Utah State

Idaho’s Strength:

Coach Akey is bringing in more talented players. Despite the return of seven offensive starters and nine defensive starters, there will be fierce competition for starting positions when the newcomers show up in the fall. At the least, Idaho will have a lot more depth than they had one year ago and that will make a big difference. The offense has some potential with quarterback Nathan Enderle and running back Deonte’ Jackson. Enderle, a 6-5 junior, will be entering his third year as the teams starting signal caller. His numbers are not that great, but experience is never a bad thing. Eddie Williams was Enderle’s safety outlet and now he is gone and Enderle needs to find a few new receivers. Like Enderle, Jackson has been starting since his freshman campaign. His sophomore year was not quite as prolific as his rookie campaign, but Jackson is an experienced back who might have to carry the offense at times.

Idaho’s Weakness:

The defense was pretty darn bad in 2008. The secondary does deserve some credit for ranking 7 th in the conference in pass defense. The Vandals tallied less than one sack per game and the opposition had all day to pick apart the secondary. However, in most situations the opposition would have no need to pass against Idaho and could just run their way to victory. But that is not to say there are not some talented players in the secondary. Strong safety Shiloh Keo won the team’s Most Valuable Player award last year and will be a leader of this year’s team. Fellow safety Virdell Larkins is back after leading the team in tackles last year and corners Isaac Butts and Kenneth Patten can only get better with a year of experience under their belt. But no matter how good the secondary plays, it will not matter if the front seven cannot stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Vandals:

Idaho still has a lot of work to be done and even in a less than superb WAC, the Vandals will still have trouble winning more than a game or two. Coach Akey seems to have the program moving in the right direction. However, it is very slowly moving in that direction.

Idaho Betting Odds

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