Fresno State Bulldogs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Fresno State 2008 Record: (7-6, 4-4)
Fresno State 2008 Bowl: New Mexico Bowl vs. Colorado State (L 35-40)
Fresno State Coach: Pat Hill (64-31 at Fresno State, 92-61 overall)
Fresno State Offensive Coordinator: Derek Frazer and Jeff Grady
Fresno State Defensive Coordinator: Randy Stewart
Fresno State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Anthony Harding, RB, 822 yards
• Passing: none
• Receiving: Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, 795 yards
• Tackles: Ben Jacobs, LB, 113
• Sacks: Jon Monga, DT, 4.5
• Interceptions: Marvin Haynes, S, 2

Notable Fresno State Returning Players: DT Cornell Banks, S Lorne Bell, C Joe Bernardi, DE Chris Carter, G Devin Cunningham, CB Desia Dunn, S Moses Harris, LB Nico Herron, G Andrew Jackson, LB Kyle Knox, RB Ryan Matthews, RB Lonyae Miller, WR Marlon Moore, DT Mark Roberts

Fresno State Key Losses: OT Kenny Avon, QB Tom Brandstater, CB Sharrod Davis, DE Ikenna Ike, OT Bobby Lepori, TE Bear Pascoe

The Bulldogs were my pick last year to win the WAC and knock off the Boise State Broncos. However, Fresno’s 61-10 loss in Boise led to my creation of what I call ‘The Smurf Turf Law’. It states ‘never pick a visiting WAC team to win in Boise’. Aside from their tail-kicking in Idaho, Pat Hill’s team was a bit of a disappointment last year. They opened up the year with two wins against BCS conference opponents, sported a 3-0 road record and were ranked in the top 25 before closing the season with a mediocre 4-4 run in conference before dropping their bowl game to Colorado State. I will forever be confused how a team wins at Rutgers and UCLA but manages to lose at home to a 1-3 Hawai’i team and lose four other games to non-BCS foes. Overall, the Bulldogs’ 2-3 home record last year was a large part of their undoing down the stretch. With 15 starters back, they’ll have to hope that their veteran experience can prevent another letdown.

Offensively, the Bulldogs bring back their top four rushers and five of their top six receivers. Their top three tailbacks combined for over 2,300 yards and 19 touchdowns and their leading receivers are seniors. Furthermore, they have a solid offensive line which brings back three starters, all of whom were underclassmen last fall, and they are led by 2 nd team All-WAC selection Andrew Jackson. The Bulldogs should have an even better running game than the group which averaged over 180 yards per game last year and their receivers should be open constantly. The big worry is the departure of quarterback Tom Brandstater, who was a three year starter and was selected in the 6 th round of the NFL draft. In his stead will be two candidates who have combined for 5 career pass attempts. This is a big concern for the Bulldogs and they’ll likely be a run-heavy team in the early going. However, over the course of the season I expect that this offense will come close to last season’s 30 points per game average and will be even tougher to stop on the ground.

The defense also appears to be in line for some solid improvement as eight starters return to a unit which allowed a Pat Hill-era-worst 31 points per game. This was in large part due to a porous run defense which was gouged to the tune of 210 yards per game! Luckily for the Bulldog faithful, six of the front seven return with another year’s experience and should be much stronger against the run. Up front, junior defensive end Chris Carter is an absolute playmaker, having recorded a whopping 88 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year. You rarely see a defensive end finish second on his team in tackles and you almost never see a defensive end pushing 90 for the season! Expect Carter to lead a much-improved line which struggled with injuries and featured a lot of underclassmen last fall. The linebackers look very good as well with all three starters returning; Expect junior middleman Ben Jacobs, who was a 2 nd team All-WAC selection, to be a tackling WAChine once more after making 113 tackles last year. The secondary should also be a good unit as there are a lot of players who have seen the field extensively due to injury. Expect senior Moses Harris to once more be a leader and he should be very good the run as well. Fresno State’s defense should definitely be improved and should do a much better job of keeping teams off of the scoreboard.

The schedule is a big concern for the Bulldogs, who always schedule tough non-conference opponents . With their inexperience under center, a season opening stretch of three road games (at Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Hawai’i) in their first five is daunting, especially when one of their home games is against Boise State. The Bulldogs have to be careful or they could start 1-4. Fresno State only has five home games this fall and must travel to Nevada late in the year in conference play. They also close the season at a much-improved Illinois team in December. In short, the non-conference schedule is daunting, the opening stretch is very difficult and they have to travel to play against the conference’s best quarterback. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have to replace a 3 year starter under center. While I expect Fresno State to be a much better team than last year, I think that their season will be in many ways a reverse from last year. Expect the Bulldogs to struggle early before performing well during conference play. I don’t expect the Bulldogs to compete for the conference crown thanks to playing Boise early and traveling to Nevada but they should still be one of the better WAC teams. If they can upset one of the three BCS teams they play this year then matching 2008’s regular season win total of seven is a strong likelihood. I will be very surprised if the Bulldogs don’t play in their 6 th bowl in the last seven years this winter.

Fresno State Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Wisconsin, Sept. 18th vs. Boise State, Oct. 10th @ Hawai’i, Oct. 17th vs. San Jose State, Nov. 14th @ Nevada, Dec. 5th @ Illinois

Fresno State’s Strength:

This time around the strength should be on the defensive side of the ball. Fresno State ranked seventh in the conference in total defense, but that should improve with nine starters returning. The front line allowed the opposition to run all over them, but a year of experience should help. Cornell Banks, Jon Monga and Mark Roberts need to do a better job of clogging up the middle. End Chris Carter started ten games as a sophomore and was second on the team in tackles and tallied four sacks. If Carter can consistently get into the backfield and the tackles can stop the run, the Bulldogs will have one of the best defenses in the conference. With linebackers like Ben Jacobs and a secondary that includes Moses Harris and Desia Dunn, the defense could be very good.

Fresno State’s Weakness:

The offense might return seven starters and plenty of talent, but replacing Brandstater will be difficult. Ryan Colburn is the likely replacement, but can he really be the guy? If not, the Bulldogs will have a big problem with their passing attack. Receivers Seyi Ajirotutu and Chastin West are capable receivers, but tight end Bear Pascoe is gone and he was a great outlet option for Brandstater. The new quarterback will not have that luxury. If the passing attack struggles, Fresno State can move the chains thanks to a group of talented rushers. Anthony Harding, Lonyae Miller and Ryan Matthews combined for 2,240 rushing yards and 19 jaunts to the end zone. Those three will be reliable either way, but they will be much, much more effective if Colburn can at least keep things moving through the air.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bulldogs:

Injuries on the defensive side of the ball turned the 2008 campaign into a disappointment. That problem should be fixed in 2009 and that will turn the defense into a great unit. With a trio of running backs, the offense has the potential to be decent. And if Colburn can pick up where Brandstater left off, the Bulldogs could push Boise State for the conference championship.

Fresno State Betting Odds

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