Phillies vs Braves | Prediction & Pick

Phillies vs Braves – MLB Free Pick – Sunday April 10, 2011

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 1:35 PM EST on TBS

The Philadelphia Phillies wrap-up a three game series with the Atlanta Braves this Sunday afternoon at Turner Field in an early showdown between these two NL East rivals. Game time is set for 1:35 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on TBS.

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Philadelphia lefthander Cliff Lee go lit up on Friday night in the first game of this series; giving up 10 hits and six runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work in a 6-3 loss. The Phillies actually jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in this one, but things unraveled quickly for Lee in the second inning. Depending on the outcome of Saturday’s game, Philadelphia could find itself in second place in the East after a 5-1 start if it gets swept in by the Braves.

Coming into this series, Philadelphia was averaging 7.2 runs per game and hitting a league-best .353 as a team. Ryan Howard has led the way with eight RBI and two home runs, but went 0-for-3 in Friday’s game and stranded three runners on base by grounding out into a double play in the fifth inning.

Phillies left hander Cole Hamels will make his second start of the season on Sunday. He is coming off the second-worst outing of his career after giving up seven hits, six runs, and two walks in just 2 2/3 innings of work in a loss to the New York Mets last Tuesday. Hamels, who is the fourth starter in the rotation, went 12-11 last season with an ERA of 3.06 in 33 starts. He is 9-5 with a 3.95 ERA lifetime against the Braves.

Atlanta started the season by taking two out of three from Washington, but lost three of four to Milwaukee this past week. The Braves’ pitching has been excellent so far with an NL-best 2.65 team ERA, but the bats had struggled a bit until breaking out on Friday. They have a team batting average of .241 led by Brian McCann’s 13 hits and five RBI. Chipper Jones is also off to a good start with 10 hits and six RBI in the first eight games.

Derek Lowe will be on the mound for Atlanta in this game. The right hander is 1-1 on the year with an ERA of just 0.77. He has given up just eight hits and one earned run in 11 2/3 innings of work. Lowe was 16-12 with a 4.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.37 in 33 starts last season. Against the Phillies he is 7-3 with an ERA of 3.12.

Head-to-head, the Phillies have won five of the last seven games overall with the total going ‘over’ in three of the last five games. They have split the last four games at Turner Field with the total going ‘over’ in three of them. Last season Philadelphia was 2-3 with Hamels as the starter and Atlanta was 1-3 with Lowe on the mound. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last eight games played in Atlanta.

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Prediction: It is hard to know what to expect from Hamels after getting rocked in his opener, so stick with Lowe and the Braves to pound out another victory as a mild home favorite.

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

• Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
• Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta’s last 12 games at home
• Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia