Top 3 NFL ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 11
For the second week in a row the ‘over’ bet had a huge advantage with 11 games scoring more points than the total line and only three scoring less. The total average number of points scored in each game came in at 51.9 points, which was a six points higher than last week’s 45.9. The highest average total was in Week 8 at 56.5 points and the lowest was in Week 1 at 36.6. The most combined points scored last week was 87 in Philadelphia’s 59-28 romp over Washington and the least amount of points scored was 26 in Buffalo’s 14-12 win over Detroit; the Bills first of the season.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 11 in the NFL. All total lines quoted are courtesy of BetUS.com.
Baltimore @ Carolina Over/Under: 37 ½
Baltimore’s defense is ranked 10th overall; 13th against the pass and eighth against the run, but it has done an even better job at keeping opposing teams off the scoreboard. The Ravens are ranked seventh in points allowed; giving up an average of just 18.3 points per game.
Carolina’s 32nd ranked offense received another blow when RB DeAngelo Williams was placed on the Injured Reserve list with a foot injury. The woeful Panthers are averaging 250.6 yards of total offense and just 11.6 points per game.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the Ravens last six games on the road. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 12 of the Panthers last 16 games overall. The Pick: UNDER
Indianapolis @ New England Over/Under: 50 ½
Despite some recent injuries to Indianapolis’s offense including the loss of TE Dallas Clark for the season, it has still managed to average 25.6 points in its last three games. Conversely, the Colts defense has also been hampered by injuries and has given up an average of 30.3 points in their three losses this season.
New England’s offense is ranked first in the league in scoring; averaging 28.7 points per game. The Patriots’ defense is ranked 24th in the league in points allowed; giving up an average of 23.8 points per game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Colts last eight road games. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Patriots last five home games and in nine of their last 11 games overall. The Pick: OVER
New York (Giants) @ Philadelphia Over/Under: 48 ½
New York’s defense is ranked 14th in points allowed; giving up an average of 21.4 points per game, but was torched for 33 points last week at home against Dallas. The Giants’ offense is ranked sixth in scoring; averaging 26.2 points per game.
Philadelphia’s explosive offense is ranked second in the league in scoring; averaging 28.6 points per game. The Eagles’ defense is ranked 22nd in points allowed; giving up an average of 23.3 points per game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in the Giants last eight games against the NFC East and in five of their last six games on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in the Eagles last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last 12 games these two teams have played in Philadelphia. The Pick: OVER
Last week’s record: 2-1 YTD: 18-12
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