Lightning vs Capitals | Game 1 Prediction & Pick

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals

Divisional foes, the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet for the second time in the playoffs and the first time in eight seasons when the puck hits the ice in Game 1 of the best-of-seven NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals on Friday in our nation’s capital.

Date/Time: Friday, April 29, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: The Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
Broadcast: Versus

Money Line: Tampa Bay +155, Washington -180
Spread: Washington -1 ½
Over/Under: 5 ½

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The Caps blew a 2-0 series lead as the Bolts stormed back winning four straight to win in 2003 in an opening-round matchup. It was the Lightning’s first-ever series victory.

Washington has had six days of rest since dispatching the Rangers in five games and hopefully it will not stop their momentum. Their series against New York was no easy task either, as it took two victories in extra time to settle the score.

While the team enters Friday’s contest playing with more confidence because of its tighter all-around defensive game—holding the Rangers to eight goals over five games– much of the Caps success still revolves around the play of Russian sniper Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin had a strong series against NY, registering three goals and three assists.

However, should the  Caps’ defensive prowess face a stiffer test this round against the superior offensive attack of the Lightning, they should be up to the task. Washington held Tampa to 10 goals in six meetings during the regular season.

Ovechkin had two goals and eight assists in six games versus the Lightning during the year while fellow countryman Alexander Semin dominated the season series against Tampa, recording a pair of hat tricks and nine points (7 goals, 2 assists) in four games. He enters the semifinals with the Bolts scoring three goals and an assist against the Rangers.

Marcus Johansson and Jason Chimera added two goals apiece in Round 1, and the Caps are hoping to get Mike Knuble back in this series after the veteran forward missed the last two games against the Rangers. Knuble is a physical presence in front of the net and was third on Washington with 24 goals in the regular season. His physical prowess will be missed should he miss more than one or two games in the series.

As for Tampa Bay, they too have momentum of their own, having erased a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in the conference quarterfinals. But going seven games has given them just one day off between series. Therefore, Game 1 carries even more of a significant overtone as a tired visiting team will look to snatch home ice advantage by grabbing at least one in Washington before playing four games in six days, including back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week in Tampa Bay.

The Lightning’s strength lies in its top forwards, and regular season point’s leader, Martin St. Louis (99), dominated the opening round, recording four goals, and four assists in the series. Simon Gagne chipped in with two goals and five assists versus the Pens, while Steve Downie had seven points in the opening round, and Vincent Lecavalier added two goals and four dishes.

Despite all of its offensive power, Tamp Bay has gotten where it is due in large part to the solid play of veteran goaltender Dwayne Roloson who recorded a 1.77 GAA and a stellar .949 save percentage against the Pens. He stopped 243 of the 256 shots and capped it all off by posting a shutout in a pivotal Game 7 against Pittsburgh.

His opposite, Washington’s  Michal Neuvirth was also very impressive in net against the Rangers, posting a 1.38 goals-against average and a .946 save percentage in his first-ever NHL playoff series.

The odds makers have the Washington Capitals as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 5.5.

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Matt’s Free Prediction: Washington- It will be Tampa Bay’s offense versus Washington’s defense. The Bolts are very proficient at scoring at will, so the Caps’ defense must stop them. At the same time, Washington must find a way to rattle Roloson who has shown he is susceptible to poor performances, but he can also steal games. Even without Knuble to hassle Rollie, I expect the Caps to snatch Game 1 at home.

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