NFL Free Pick – Sunday, December 12, 2010
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St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 12, 2010 at 4:05 PM EST on FOX
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The Rams already have more wins than they had posted in the last three seasons combined and are currently riding a two-game winning streak heading into a game against the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints that are themselves in the midst of a five-game victory campaign.
At first glance, it might appear this is an easy betting pick with the Saints looking better in the win column, but closer analysis points out some weakness that could be exploited come Sunday.
For example, the Saints defense will definitely need to step it up if they want to extend its longest run of the season, putting together a full 60-minute effort.
After recording his 14th regular-season comeback of his career against Dallas in the final two minutes, the Saints defense blew a 20-6 third-quarter lead at Cincinnati and trailed by three with 4:25 remaining, before quarterback Drew Brees again responded by leading a 68-yard winning drive.
Penalties are another area New Orleans will need to improve upon, committing 11 penalties for 100 yards in their battle with the Bengals.
AS for the Rams, its defense has been quite the opposite as demonstrated in their 19-6 win over Arizona on Sunday, shutting out the Cardinals the last three quarters and finishing with four sacks and two interceptions.
St. Louis is tied for ninth in scoring defense with 19.8 points allowed per game after finishing 31st last season. The Rams are allowing opponents to convert 31.8 percent on third downs — second best in the NFL — and will take on a Saints team that has the second-highest third-down conversion rate at 47.7 percent.
Both teams have solid rushing attacks, the Rams with Steven Jackson who is 15 yards shy of his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season, and the Saints with rookie Chris Ivory, Reggie Bush, and Pierre.
New Orleans held on to win the most recent meeting with St. Louis 28-23 last season and I expect this one to be another close one with the Saints edging out a slim win in the Big Easy.
The odds makers have the New Orleans as a -9 point favorite with an over/under of 47.
PREDICTION- New Orleans
St. Louis Rams Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis’s last 15 games
- St. Louis is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
- St. Louis is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 7 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 6 games
- New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- New Orleans is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games
- New Orleans is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
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