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St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 16, 2011 on FOX
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Broadcast: FOX
Spread: Green Bay Packers -15 (-110)
Moneyline: St. Louis Rams +710, Green Bay Packers -950
Total: 48 points
The Green Bay Packers are truly on a role and this week get the honor of taking on one of the few winless teams remaining in the NFL. The oddmakers obviously like the Packers and you should too. It is not only a case of what the Packers have done so far this season but it is also a case of what the Rams haven’t been able to do this year that must factor into your pick ahead of Sunday’s action.
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St. Louis has had a start to the season to forget! A serious contender to win the NFC West and gain a playoff spot, the Rams have stumbled and bumbled out of the gate on their way to a well deserved 0-4 start. The offense has been dreadful and the defense has been far too generous!
The St. Louis offense has been banged up and ineffective all season long. They are the 28th ranked passing team (187 yards per game), the 25th ranked running team (92.5 yards per game) and they are averaging a league low 11.5 points per game. One slight glimmer of hope is that they should get a banged up Steven Jackson back fully healthy after a much needed bye week.
The St. Louis defense has been equally as bad this season. They have been OK versus the pass but are dead last against the run, allowing 179.75 yards per game on the ground so far this season. The Rams are giving up 404.8 yards per game this season – good (or bad) for 27th in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers bent last week against Atlanta but when it came time for the team to clamp down and step up, they did just that, scoring 29 straight points and shutting out the Falcons in the second half of Sunday night’s game. The Packers are a force on both sides of the ball and will be difficult to slow down for the rest of the season.
The Packers offense is absolutely top notch – 4th in passing and 4th in total offense. The running game has been a slight disappointment this season ranking 22nd and gaining only 99 yards per game on the ground. The 329 yards passing has more than made up for the shortcoming however – Aaron Rodgers and his league best 122.9 passer rating have dominated in every outing.
Green Bay’s defense has been stingy versus the run – 3rd ranked and allowing just 75.8 yards per game but it has been very generous versus the pass – 30th ranked and allowing 299.8 yards per game. This unit matches up very well with a St. Louis team that absolutely needs to run the ball in order to have success.
Betting Outlook: The St. Louis Rams are just 3-19 SU in their last 22 games on the road and are 2-6 SU in their last eight trips to Lambeau. St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdog.
The stats don’t really mean a thing in this game. Much has been made of the extra week preparation time that Steve Spagnuolo and the Rams have had with their bye but one cannot ignore the obvious – The Packers area much, much better team. At home against a wounded Rams team, I expect this to be the blowout of the weekend!
The odds makers have the Green Bay Packers as a -15 point favorite with an over/under of 48.
Pick: Green Bay Packers -15
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