Patriots vs Bills | Prediction & Pick

NFL Free Pick – Sunday, December  26, 2010

vs.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo  Bills
Sunday, December 26, 2010  at 1:00 PM EST on CBS

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The Patriots are in the driver seat in the AFC for the number one seed in the conference at 12-2 but still need one more win to clinch the East. They finish the season at home against Miami which should be a slam-dunk win but will look to seal the deal with a victory this week in Buffalo.

The Bills can play the role of spoiler with an upset and after winning four of their last six games could actually be in a position to do it. Buffalo knocked Miami out of the playoffs last week and have held their opponents to an average of less than 16 points in those four wins.

New England is 6-2 in its last eight games against the Bills and 6-0 ATS in its last six games in Buffalo. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of the last 12 meetings in Buffalo and in 17 of the last 23 meetings overall. The Patriots should get the win and cover, but the ‘under’ could be the best play in this one.

The odds makers have the New England Patriots as a -7.5 point favorite with an over/under of 44.

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New England Patriots Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games
• New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games on the road

Buffalo Bills Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games
• Buffalo is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
• Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games at home