Panthers vs Steelers | Prediction & Pick

NFL Free Pick – Thursday, December  23, 2010

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Carolina Panthers (2-12) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
Thursday, December 23, 2010  at 8:20 PM EST on NFLN

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Carolina is close to completing a miserable season.  They currently have the worst record in the league, and given that they finish with two road games and haven’t won on the road all season, things are likely to finish that way.  Last week this horrible team actually won a game.  Their success was due to a very good effort out of running back Jonathan Stewart who rushed for 137 yards and a passable performance by rookie QB Jimmy Clausen.  Clausen is the leagues lowest rated QB and threw only his second TD pass of the entire season last week.  Despite having a better than average arm he is unable to make any plays down the field.  He has only 13 completions that gained better than 20 yards, lowest in the league amongst eligible passers.  The Panthers don’t really have much of a chance if Pittsburgh puts forth a max effort but there could be some inclination for them to coast given the calibre of the opponent.

The Steelers are enjoying another very good season.  There was some concern for the beginning with Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines but they weathered that storm easily and are now in a position to grab a first round bye depending on how they finish up.  Unfortunately they will not have the services of Troy Polamalu for this one.  The do everything safety is being rested to heal up for the playoffs but there is still the fearsome duo of James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley to deal with.  No pair of LBs in the league has more sacks than them and they will pose a problem for a Panthers line that has given up the most sacks in the league this season.  Also look for the Steelers to really pound away with RB Rashard Mendenhall.  He had a very good game against the Jets last week and is enjoying a fine season with more than 1200 yards already.  The weather could be blustery so I expect the Steelers to feature the run.

The Steelers are a god team but they are only 8-6 ATS.  They haven’t been as big a favourite as they are tonight in any game this year so it will be interesting to see if they have the kind of focus needed to beat a team by a couple of TDs.  Caolina has been a big dog (+10.5) twice this season with a 1-1 ATS record.  For what it is with the lone ATS victory was on the road.  This is a hard won to figure given the motivational differences for these teams.

Game Prediction: The Steelers should come out strong and build an early lead that will make it tough for the Panthers to find the intestinal fortitude to stay in the game.  This one should be over by halftime but there is chance of a backdoo cover.

Score Prediction:
Pittsburgh – 28
Carolina – 13

The spread is -14 for Pittsburgh…Steelers will absolutely win and their is not a great amount of value here.

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Carolina Panthers Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 games
  • Carolina is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
  • Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina’s last 7 games on the road

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • Pittsburgh is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home

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