The trend toward game totals going over continued in week five as eight games went over, five games stayed under, and one push; Washington @ Carolina with a line of 37. Two teams, the Giants and Falcons took their games over on their own with New York scoring 44 against the Raiders and Atlanta tagging the 49ers for 45. A couple of games stayed right around their projected total with Houston and Arizona going over by 1 point and Jacksonville and Seattle staying under by 3 points. The under of the day was Cleveland at Buffalo as they combined for a total of 9 points with a 40.5 total line. The Jets and Dolphins were locked in at 23 total points heading into the 4th quarter when they exploded for five combined touchdowns to take this game way over the 36.5 total. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week six.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins Current Over/Under 38
The Chiefs finish a brutal stretch against the NFC East with a winnable game in Washington. The Redskins have lost two out of their last three games to teams with a combined record of 2-12. They rank 27th in points per game and 23rd in total offense. The strength of this team lies in their defense as they rank 5th overall and 6th in points allowed. The news out of Washington this week has been the status of head coach Jim Zorn whose days in D.C. are supposedly numbered. Kansas City is still winless in five games and has an offense that is just as bad as the Redskins. The Chiefs rank 25th in points per game and 30th in total offense. Unfortunately, their defense is probably worse as they rank dead last in yards allowed per game and 28th in points. This all adds up to boring game that should feature more punts than kick offs. This is the UNDER bet of the week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings Current Over/Under 44
The Ravens are coming off two straight losses and need a win to keep pace in the AFC North. The Vikings ran their record to 5-0 with a relatively easy win over St. Louis last week. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 10th in points allowed giving up an average of 18 per game, but they have yet to face a team that can put points on the board like Baltimore. The Ravens are averaging almost 28 points a game and are 5th in total yards per game. Offensively, the Vikings are one of the best in the league, averaging 31.2 points per game behind RB Adrian Peterson and QB Brett Favre. One of the weak points for Baltimore has been their normally dominant defense. While they are still ranked 10th overall, their pass defense has been suspect giving up an average of 238 yards per game. This game is setting up as a shootout as both quarterbacks will be looking for big play scores that will add up quickly. This one is going OVER the total.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders Current Over/Under 40.5
This game is a classic mismatch between good and bad. The Eagles come in with a 3-1 record and have scored thirty or more points in three out of four games. The Raiders are now 1-4 having lost their last three games by a combined score of 16-96. Things have gone from bad to worse for Oakland as not only has their offense all but disappeared; their head coach is close to being indicted on assault charges for an incident involving one of his assistants. While Tom Cable insists his problems are not a distraction, it is hard to believe it is not having some kind of negative impact on the team in general. What is having a negative impact is the absolutely horrible play of Raider QB JaMarcus Russell. His stats for five games are an embarrassing 51 completions on 121 attempts for 1 TD. Philadelphia’s high flying offense led by QB Donovan McNabb should be able to cover the OVER on their own, but I see the Raiders scoring a few points to help the cause.
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